Russian companies named the pros and cons of a possible lifting of sanctions

A survey by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences showed that most industrial enterprises welcome a possible easing of sanctions. They are waiting for the restoration of supplies of equipment and technologies. Every fifth enterprise sees negative consequences from the lifting of restrictions

Russian enterprises mostly evaluate the possible lifting of sanctions against RUSSIA positively or neutrally, despite the risk of increased competition after the return of foreign manufacturers. These results of a survey of industrial enterprises were presented by economist Sergei Tsukhlo from the Institute of Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences at a conference dedicated to economic statistics and analytics at the Financial University under the Government (RBK followed the broadcast).

Tsukhlo conducts monthly business surveys of industrialists and calculates the index of industrial optimism. In February-March, this indicator of the mood of Russian industry froze at the "freezing point", maintaining zero values, the economist wrote at the end of March.

The April survey included questions about how companies assess the possible consequences of lifting sanctions, what risks and positive effects they expect from this. More than half (54%) assess the consequences of lifting sanctions positively, 26% - neutrally. Representatives of about every fifth company expressed a negative attitude, namely: 18% stated a moderately negative assessment and 1% - a definitely negative one.

What negative and positive effects does business see from the easing of sanctions?

Tsukhlo drew attention to the "dual nature" of the attitude of Russian industry towards sanctions. "On the one hand, it depends on supplies of imported components, equipment, materials, and on the other, it will be forced to compete with returning imports," he explained. Despite this, positive assessments of the consequences of the lifting of sanctions prevail; enterprises see more advantages than disadvantages, the economist stated.

The main positive effect that almost three quarters of industrialists expect is the restoration of supplies of equipment, spare parts and technologies. Almost the same number (72%) expect the resumption of supplies of imported components and materials. The top 3 rating is closed by the expectation of the restoration of normal payments for export-import operations, 45% of respondents want this.

Among other positive consequences, respondents most often named the restoration of previous technological chains and product quality (33%), restoration of EXPORT demand and logistics chains (32%). Enterprises also believe that after the return of imports, prices for import-substituting equipment will decrease - Russian (30% expect this) and Chinese (27%).

The main risk that enterprises name is the return of competing imports to sales markets – 39% expressed such concerns. “But I think that overall it is not so bad that there will be competition, including with imports,” noted Tsukhlo.

Other frequently voiced disadvantages of lifting sanctions are the decrease in import-substituting demand for products of Russian businesses (21%) and the displacement of currently needed Russian import substitutes from the market (19%). Only 14% of industrialists fear the departure of Chinese and other foreign import substitutes. 8% of surveyed enterprises do not rule out that, against the backdrop of increased competition, the cost price of their products and prices will increase.

Have the sanctions met expectations?

In his report, Tsukhlo also compared Russian industrialists' expectations from the introduction of sanctions and the departure of foreign importers with the current state of affairs, comparing the results of surveys from April 2022 and March 2025. The most widespread consequence of the sanctions was and remains the increase in production costs and prices due to the lack of alternative suppliers in Russia or friendly countries: in 2022, 64% stated this, and three years later - 60%.

The second most popular concern — the lack of alternative suppliers — is relevant not for everyone three years later, but for many. Thus, in 2022, 62% of enterprises spoke about this, and in 2025 — 55%.

The biggest gap between expectations for 2022 and the reality of 2025 occurred in the assessment of a possible reduction in output due to the inability to replace imported raw materials and components. If at the beginning of the sanctions pressure, 34% of enterprises expressed such concerns, then in March of this year only 9% spoke about such a risk. In addition, the share of those who are concerned about the shutdown or replacement of existing imported equipment due to the impossibility of its maintenance and repair has halved (from 40 to 20%).

The positive expectations from the introduction of sanctions that Russian businesses expressed in the spring of 2022 came true: if 36% of enterprises expected an increase in import-substituting demand for their products then, in 2025, 41% already said so.

A survey conducted in January 2025 by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) showed a reduction by the end of 2024 in the share of enterprises suffering in one way or another from restrictions caused by sanctions. In particular, the share of those who stated that they were unable to purchase new equipment due to import restrictions decreased (from 29% in the second quarter to 15% in the fourth) and the inability to make payments to foreign counterparties (from 28% in the second quarter to 15%). In addition, if in the first half of the year 20% of the surveyed companies spoke about the impact of sanctions on their company's activities, then by the end of the year their share decreased to 14%.

The impact of sanctions can be compared to the ruble exchange rate: “for some in industry, a weak ruble is better , for others, a strong one, and for others, something in between or simply indifferent,” says Vladimir Salnikov, HEAD of the department for analysis and forecasting of real sector industries at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. “Everything depends on the situation, on the models by which businesses operate in different sectors. For example, if someone used components that have become unavailable or that still have to be obtained in some complicated way, then, naturally, the resumption of imports will be a plus for them. And for some, competitors will indeed appear,” Salnikov reasons.

How successful is import substitution?

Import substitution processes have reduced the dependence of Russian manufacturers on foreign suppliers, but in capital-intensive industries (for example, the production of electronics, auto components and industrial equipment), reducing the share of imports still remains a significant challenge, says Andrey Kusik, project manager at the consulting company ATK+. Although enterprises have largely adapted and reoriented their purchasing strategy, some companies are trying to extend the life cycle of previously purchased equipment as much as possible, especially in the context of the high key rate of the Central Bank, the expert adds.

"In these conditions, business, as a rule, uses three supply channels: parallel import , purchase of OEM solutions and analogs, and development of reverse engineering," Kusik knows. OEM (from original equipment manufacturer) is the production of goods under the customer's brand from the original manufacturer.

DIRECTOR of Operations at the Kronstadt Engineering Center, Alexander Tretyakov, believes that, for example, in the oil and gas industry, for a number of items of equipment for geological exploration and subsequent field development, the level of localization is approaching 85–90%, and the main “growth zones” in terms of import substitution remain gas turbines (for gas compression and power generation). In the oil refining complex, the level of localization has increased in control valves and pumping products, and “at a slower pace, but growth is still being achieved in compressor equipment and high-power steam turbines,” Tretyakov points out.

Successes in import substitution are primarily associated with low- and medium-tech industries, but even where they have managed to organize their own production, the quality of the products is often inferior to imported analogues, says Anna Fedyunina, Deputy Director of the Center for Structural Policy Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. "It is important that quality problems further develop into restrictions for the industries that consume these products. In particular, this concerns certain areas of machine tool and mechanical engineering, where import-substituted products are characterized by limited functionality, a shorter service life, and a lack of modern digital interfaces," she notes.

In the short term, the easing of the sanctions regime will indeed be perceived as a positive factor - it will open up the opportunity to quickly eliminate bottlenecks in production chains, especially in terms of access to high-tech components and equipment, says Kusik. But in the long term, it is important to maintain the course towards reducing import dependence - both through government support measures at the macro level and through systemic work at the enterprise level, he emphasizes.

Competition is important, and too long an “isolation” of import substitution does not allow domestic products to achieve competitiveness, Fedyunina is sure. “Based on foreign experience in implementing import substitution, we see that the task of “pitting” domestic producers against foreign competitors, as a rule, has an extremely positive effect on the quality and success of domestic companies,” she asserts.

Earlier, RBC wrote that the authorities were working on a preliminary list of conditions that foreign companies must meet in order to be able to return to Russia. Among these conditions are mechanisms to protect domestic businesses that have invested in import substitution. "We advocate that the doors should be closed in those markets where our producers have appeared. This could be for a period of time, for example, two or three years, to give them the opportunity to... recoup their investments," said Elena Dybova, Vice President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Following the short-term positive effect of easing sanctions, "problems may begin," warns Alexander Shirov, director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "And here the key question is to what extent will investments in production that were made in 2022-2024 be supported so that enterprises can actually work and sell their products on the market," he emphasizes.

Head of the Department of Analysis and Forecasting of Development of Real Sector Industries at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) Vladimir Salnikov