Defrosting for Belavia: What signal is sent to Moscow

The US has issued a license for financial transactions with Belavia , but has not lifted key sanctions . On Radio RBC, political scientists Konstantin Kalachev and Mikhail Vinogradov discuss what this will give Russia and how the Kremlin will react to it

• [00:00] The US Treasury Department has authorized financial transactions with Belavia, but has not unblocked assets. This is part of the rapprochement process between the US and Belarus.

• [01:01] Flights between Russia and the US via Minsk are currently impossible due to European sanctions. The possibility of using Belavia to service Russian Boeings is being discussed hypothetically.

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• [02:29] There are no real benefits for Russia yet: US visa restrictions remain, and Minsk’s role as a hub is an alternative to Istanbul. Politically, Belavia  is a signal, but not a breakthrough.

• [03:55] Russia’s reaction to the rapprochement between Minsk and the United States will be twofold: some see a threat to the alliance, others see a new channel of communication.

• [05:57] For Lukashenko, the lifting of sanctions is a chance to increase legitimacy, balance between Russia and the West, and preserve the country’s independence.

• [07:07] Possible further lifting of sanctions on other Belarusian companies depends on Minsk’s behavior in the context of relations with Russia and the West. Moscow may react jealously, but pragmatism prevails.