Could Orban's visit to Moscow give impetus to Ukraine negotiations?

On November 28, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin reported that the consultations lasted four hours. The Hungarian delegation included approximately ten people, including Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, Transport Minister János Lázár, and National Security Advisor Marcel Bíró. The Russian delegation included Presidential Aide Yuri Ušakov, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and Foreign Minister Vladimir Putin.Sergey Lavrov .

Hungarian media announced Orbán's visit to Moscow earlier this week, but Budapest didn't officially confirm the information until the last day. Sources for VSquare claimed the trip had not been coordinated with Hungary's NATO, EU, or US partners . On the day of the visit, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that his Hungarian counterpart had come to talk with Putin "without a European mandate."

Orbán has consistently criticized the EU for supplying arms to Kyiv. Hungary not only refuses to send weapons to Ukraine, but also frequently blocks sanctions against Russia. The prime minister visited Moscow for the first time since the conflict began in July 2024, immediately following his visit to Kyiv. The Hungarian prime minister's "peace mission" was met with criticism in the EU, with some European leaders believing that by visiting Moscow, Orbán was undermining the bloc's unity.

In mid-October, US President Donald Trump agreed by phone with Putin to hold their next meeting in Budapest. However, the American leader soon announced sanctions against Russia and canceled the summit in the Hungarian capital. However, Orbán continued to express his willingness to host Trump and Putin. This issue was discussed during his visit to Washington on November 7.

Immediately before the start of the talks in Moscow, Orbán reiterated Hungary's readiness to provide a venue for the negotiations. Putin did not rule out the possibility that the talks between Russia and the US could culminate in a summit in Budapest. "If our negotiations [with the US] reach the point of using the Budapest platform, I would also be very happy about that and would like to thank you for your willingness to assist," the Russian leader said.

Before departing for Moscow, Orbán told reporters that discussions of the Ukrainian conflict were inevitable, but emphasized that the main goal of his trip was energy cooperation with Russia. "I'm going [to Moscow] to secure Hungary's energy supply for the winter and next year," he explained.

The European Commission previously presented a plan to completely wean itself off Russian energy by the end of 2027. Hungary estimates this would cost the country 4% of GDP (or a loss of $10 billion). Budapest insists that the landlocked republic has no alternative to cheap Russian oil , and that attempting to switch suppliers would trigger an economic crisis .

Hungary has consistently blocked tightening EU energy sanctions against Russia (in 2022, the country used its veto to ensure continued Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline). While the share of Russian oil in the EU's overall imports fell from 26% in 2021 to 3% in 2024 , Hungary, on the contrary, increased its purchases.

The day before, Hungarian Prime Minister Gergely Gulyas, head of the office, announced that the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL was discussing the purchase of a stake in Serbia's NIS, which was subject to US sanctions. In November, these sanctions led to the suspension of oil supplies to NIS's refinery via Croatia's JANAF pipeline. Against this backdrop, Szijjártó traveled to Serbia and assured local authorities that MOL was prepared to increase oil exports to the country by 2.5 times.

NIS is the main production asset of Serbia's oil refining industry. Gazprom Neft (44.85%) and Gazprom (11.3%) hold controlling stakes in the company. Serbia itself owns 29.87%. The United States imposed sanctions on NIS in early January. Washington demanded that Russia completely exclude all Russian participation in the company. Since then, the restrictions have been postponed several times, but the sanctions came into effect in early October. Serbian President AleksandarSpeaking about the fate of NIS, Vučić stated that the US would agree to defer sanctions against the company only if it was nationalized, but he was unwilling to take that step. On November 25, Vučić announced that the government had voted against nationalizing NIS and was in favor of granting additional time to find a new buyer.

Hungary had already faced the risk of US sanctions due to its energy cooperation with Russia. However, during his visit to Washington, Orbán managed to secure Trump's permission to purchaseRussia's oil . The United States has made a "permanent" exception for Russian energy supplies to Hungary via the Turkish Stream and Druzhba pipelines.

"I would like to emphasize that the foundation of Hungary's energy security is stable Russian energy supplies, past, present, and future. We highly value the stability and predictability of Russian energy supplies. Hungary is interested in maintaining an energy dialogue with your country, and today I would like to discuss this range of issues in detail," Orbán said at a meeting with Putin.

During talks with Orbán, Putin stated that Hungary takes a "balanced position on the Ukrainian issue." The Hungarian politician noted that Ukraine  is Hungary's neighbor, and therefore Budapest "fully feels the impact of the Ukrainian conflict," including suffering significant economic losses.

Nikolai Topornin, Director of the Center for European Information, believes the main goal of the visit is to consolidate the agreements reached in Washington with the Russian side. "It's important for him to ensure uninterrupted supplies from Russia until at least 2027. Regarding the discussions around Ukraine, Orbán most likely came to Moscow hoping to better understand Russia's position on the upcoming peace plan so he can convey it to Trump, with whom he has a very good relationship," the expert told RBC. For Russia, in his opinion, this visit is no less important from an economic perspective. "It's possible that Russia will also try to convey its position on Ukraine to Trump through Orbán. However, a breakthrough in the negotiating process in this regard is not to be expected," the expert warns.

On November 28, the Kremlin announced it had received the "main parameters" of the US plan, which Washington had agreed upon in negotiations with Ukraine and its European allies. As Putin stated the day before, Moscow generally agreed to this version serving as "the basis for future agreements." The content of the updated version of the plan is unknown.REUTERS and CBS News reported that Kyiv has agreed to the main provisions of the deal, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would like to personally discuss the most sensitive points with Trump by the end of November.

The American 28-point plan was first unveiled on November 20. Since then, the Ukrainian side has held several meetings with the American side:

• On November 20, Volodymyr Zelenskyy received in Kyiv the new US Special Representative for Ukraine, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll.
• On November 23, a Ukrainian delegation led by Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, held consultations with the American and European delegations in Geneva.
• On November 25, an American delegation led by Dan Driscoll met in Abu Dhabi with representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services.

Washington hasn't held settlement talks with Moscow yet. They're scheduled for next week, when US Presidential Special Envoy SteveWitkoff . Volodymyr Zelenskyy also announced "important negotiations."

Yermak clarified Ukraine's position even before his resignation. "No sane person would sign a document today renouncing territories," he told the Atlantic. "<…> All we can realistically discuss now is defining the line of contact." Yermak clarified that discussions of several issues, including territories, had been postponed so that Zelenskyy and Trump could discuss them.

Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor of the Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities, believes that Orban's trip should be viewed solely as a private visit ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year in Hungary. "In this way, Orban is trying to demonstrate to his voters, and by extension, to the entire European Union, that he is a force capable of negotiating with the US, Russia, and China," the expert told RBC. He believes Orban may have discussed the situation of Hungarians in Transcarpathia with Putin: "He may have asked that Budapest's position on this issue be taken into account when drafting a peace plan. Orban is unlikely to have had any other, more global, goals in mind."

Transcarpathia, which is now part of Ukraine, was part of Hungary until 1920. In 1939, Hungarian troops occupied the region, which was then part of Czechoslovakia. In 1945, an agreement was signed in Moscow transferring Transcarpathia to the Ukrainian SSR. According to Hungarian authorities, 150,000 Hungarians currently live in the Transcarpathian region of the republic.

In 2012, the local administration granted Hungarian the status of a regional language, allowing it to be officially used in official documents. However, in 2018, the regional language law was repealed. Budapest believes that Ukraine is thus oppressing ethnic Hungarians.

According to Trukhachev, the final European negotiator is more likely to be an opponent of the Hungarian prime minister, such as current NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. According to Topornin, only Kyiv can positively influence the negotiations. "If Ukraine begins to work with the European delegation, hinting that some provisions of the American plan have become more favorable to them, then some progress will be possible," the expert believes.