Experts assessed the need of Russian banks for additional capitalization

Banks in need of additional capitalization may need ₽3.5 trillion in a stress scenario, including ₽2.2 trillion from the state, CMASF experts calculated. According to them,

More than a third of Russian banks in 2022–2023, due to the worsening economic situation, may experience difficulties with the size of their own capital - as a result, they may need additional capitalization. This is stated in a study by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF).

Additional capitalization will be required for 129 banks, which account for 68% of the assets of the banking system outside of Sberbank, analysts say. They estimate its total volume at 3.5 trillion rubles. Of these, 71 banks, which account for half of the banking system's assets outside Sberbank, need "extraordinary capital support", primarily from the state. Support from the state can reach 2.2 trillion rubles. Another 58 banks can be capitalized at the expense of their owners (almost 1.3 trillion rubles). Among systemically important credit institutions, six banks require additional capitalization. Their capital needs to be replenished by almost 2 trillion rubles, while 1.5 trillion rubles. can be allocated by the state, the authors of the study estimate. They note that it is mainly about state-owned banks. For 51 private banks in Moscow, The Moscow region and St. Petersburg account for just over 1 trillion rubles. necessary financing, of which 0.7 trillion rubles. may be provided by the state. Another 63 credit organizations out of 129 are private regional banks. Their capital needs to be replenished by 0.4 trillion rubles. (177 billion rubles - from the state). The smallest volume of additional capitalization is 66 billion rubles. - may be required by nine Russian subsidiaries of foreign banks.

The volume of the estimated need for banks in additional capitalization from the state in the stress scenario (the worst of those that currently have a significant probability) will be less than 1% of GDP in two years - and will not be higher than the similar indicators of the banking crises of 2008–2009 and 2014–2018,” — noted in the study. Additional capitalization by the state by 2.2 trillion rubles. will amount to 0.7% of GDP in two years (according to the forecast of the CMASF), in 2009 it reached 1.05%, in 2015 - 0.97%, Renat Akhmetov, a leading analyst at the CMASF, told RBC.

Experts estimated the share of potential recipients of credit holidays

According to Akhmetov, it is quite realistic to recapitalize banks for such a volume of funds in two years. The source of public funds may be federal loan bonds, which were already issued specifically for these purposes in 2015. The Central Bank can transfer to banks either new OFZs, or those securities that it is currently buying from the market, or issue new issues of public debt, Akhmetov said. During the last crisis in 2015, 25 banks received additional capitalization through the DIA in this way for a total of 802 billion rubles, in 2009 - 17 banks for 406 billion rubles, the expert recalls.