Belousov from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) described the business model as "like the 90s, but for the benefit of society."

The Russian economy's strengths include its ability to withstand sanctions, some parts of which have demonstrated high resilience to crises, and the successful overcoming of extreme poverty , according to Dmitry Belousov, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Department at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). However, "to move forward, we need to do something new, and that's a problem," Belousov said at a closed meeting of the Stolypin Club on December 17 (RBK has a transcript of his speech, which a participant confirmed was authentic).

"What's crucial is that a cadre of young entrepreneurs has emerged who have been able to provide us with supply flexibility, adaptability to sanctions, and the establishment of trade routes, including payment synchronization at the points where needed, and everything else. This is a completely unexpected development, because until now it seemed that our state relied on the sovereign's people—but no, it's far from being solely based on them. It's also based on these young, active entrepreneurs, who say, 'We live like it was the 90s, only for the good of society.'"

According to Belousov, much has been achieved thanks to the "integration model" that existed but has now been exhausted within the country. "We were able to [build] those parts of the economy that were modernized and proved resilient. Pharmaceuticals demonstrated that they can operate despite the covid-19 pandemic and the cessation of external supplies. Surprisingly, they were the first to produce a vaccine. Agriculture is exported, and not only do we not have a bread shortage, which we've been constantly warned about, but we also don't have a MEAT shortage on the market, surprisingly enough. Our logistics are working, and we've managed to create a powerful digital environment," he stated.

The CMACS economist also credited the state with "overcoming extreme poverty." "Yes, we have a high pre-poverty rate, nearly 40% overall, but the situation where people don't have enough to eat has become more socially deprived, more socially and territorially deprived. Generally speaking, we've moved away from the situation where 15% of people were poor, unable to afford anything at the tail end of the 1990s reforms," ​​Belousov stated. However, he added that 30-40% of people living near the poverty line, barely able to afford food and clothing, "is also very bad."

At the same time, the economist noted that RUSSIA faces a challenge in creating new and building functioning institutions. "We have largely failed to internalize a normal institutional framework, while we routinely resolve truly complex property issues and disputes over mutual obligations in unstable situations through the normal courts," he stated.

According to Belousov, Russia as a whole can count on "effective economic sovereignty with the smart development of new international supply chains." However, right now, the Russian economy is forced to cope with a quarterly decline in investment and a nine-month decline in output in the vast majority of manufacturing sectors, he noted. The budget deficit is growing, and as a result, the tax burden is increasing. Tight monetary policy has forced businesses to self-finance investments, and most enterprises have postponed them indefinitely, Belousov believes.

According to Rosstat, Russia's GDP grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, and by 1% for January-September 2025 (.xlsx). However, in quarterly terms (seasonally adjusted), the first quarter saw a 0.7% decline, while GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter and by 0.1% in the third. This means that annual growth is currently being driven by the fourth quarter of last year (+4.5% year-on-year), while the economy has been in the red since the beginning of the year, economists told RBC. Their overall economic growth forecasts for 2025 range from 0.8% to 1.3% (assuming a recovery in recent months). By the end of 2024 , Russia's GDP is projected to have grown by 4.3%.