The sixth wave or endemic: what does the increase in the incidence of "covid" mean?

Among doctors there is no consensus on the likelihood of a new wave of covid-19.

Moscow medical institutions are returning the anti-epidemic regime with mandatory thermometry, masks and social distance, a new increase in the incidence is recorded in St. Petersburg and forecasts are being made about the beginning of the sixth wave of the pandemic. However, in Finland they are calling for revaccination and believe that the CORONAVIRUS has passed into the endemic stage.

Waiting for the sixth wave

Rospotrebnadzor connects the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in RUSSIA with the spread of infectious types of "omicron". On July 19, the agency reported the first cases of strain BA.2.75 in Russia, which came from India and was named "centaur". it is he who can become the driver of a new wave of morbidity this fall.

Some experts believe that the wave has already begun due to a sharp increase in the number of detected cases. According to official data, on July 28, 11.5 thousand cases of coronavirus were registered in Russia. This is the highest number since April 13th. Most of the cases are in Moscow – there are now more infected people there than at the end of June in the whole country (+4477 over the past day).

On July 28, a new summer record for the incidence was set in St. Petersburg - plus 1,151 cases of infection (in early July, an average of 250 cases were recorded per day). Since July 28, in St. Petersburg, a transforming building of the Hospital for War Veterans on Narodnaya Street has been added to five covid hospitals - 120 additional beds have been deployed there. According to the Komzdrav, there are currently 1,259 beds for patients with coronavirus and pneumonia, 946 of them are occupied.

Save who can

There is still no consensus in the medical community about the beginning of the sixth wave of the pandemic. Thus, Lev Averbakh, chief physician of private emergency medical care Coris, commented on social networks on the return of the anti-epidemic regime to Moscow medical institutions in the form of mandatory thermometry, wearing masks and maintaining social distance with the message: “Well, I can congratulate you all, we are now at the very beginning of the sixth wave - save whoever you can! Run for the vaccine before it's too late, the rest is from the evil one.

Other experts believe that the main wave will come in the fall. The identified "centaur" and other variants of the omicron strain (BA.4 and BA.5) are much more infectious than the previous ones. They are comparable to measles in terms of transmission rate. At the same time, they are less pathogenic, that is, they do not cause a severe course of the disease.

Alarming indicators

Rosportrebnadzor does not exclude the return of covid restrictions with a significant increase in the incidence. “If the situation with COVID-19 worsens, restrictive measures may be resumed,” the agency said in a statement. However, experts believe that the main indicator for the resumption of restrictions should be considered mortality and the number of hospitalizations. “To assess the severity of the pandemic, today it is not enough to track only the number of new cases of infection,” said the DIRECTOR of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Medical Research at the European University in St. Petersburg in a conversation with RBC Petersburg.Anton Barchuk. “We saw in the case of the omicron that it spread rapidly, while the death rate did not increase. Now in many countries where there is an increase in the incidence, there is no increase in the number of deaths.

Read on RBC Pro Pro Eliminate or Leave:what happens to the trusts of Russians in Europe Articles Pro Five exercises for a healthy back Instructions ProWhy only 8% of Russians aspire to unlimited wealth Studies Pro Anti-sanctions "plastic":where is it better to get an international card Articles Pro Is it worth it to agree to a promotion without a premiumPro How online stores retain users with video Instructions Pro Countries,universities where your children will still have time to enter in 2022 Instructions Pro Anger, disgust and debriefing:Why is it so difficult to talk about sex Instructions

In Finland, the decrease in mortality is associated with vaccination. “According to rough estimates, up to 10,000 lives were supposedly saved through vaccination this year alone,” Mika Salminen, director of the Finnish HEALTH and Social Development Authority THL, told Yle. No cases of infection have been detected in Suomi over the past week. Salminen said that in Finland the pandemic has passed into the endemic stage. In other words, for the Finns, it is now a permanent infection in their region with a more predictable spread and controllable.

Questions about vaccinations

Finnish health officials are recommending that their citizens get their fourth coronavirus shot. At the same time, people aged 18 to 79 years old belonging to various risk groups will be revaccinated, first of all. The vaccine is also recommended for people aged 60-69 years without health problems.

In Russia, revaccination is recommended every six months. It is believed that the so-called booster effect allows you to get additional protection. In the near future, in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, a nasal vaccine in the form of a spray is expected to arrive. It will be used for people over 18 years of age, mainly for revaccination of those already vaccinated with the injectable version of the vaccine.

However, among experts there is no consensus on the need for frequent revaccination. “We have no data that now mass vaccination will improve the situation,” says Anton Barchuk. - There is a recommendation for those who are not vaccinated - to get vaccinated in any case, regardless of whether the person was sick or not. But if a person has received at least 3 doses of the vaccine, there are no concomitant diseases, then revaccination is optional.”