FT announced a “showdown” in the EU with Orban over Ukraine

The EU has launched a last-ditch attempt to convince Orban to agree to help Ukraine  ; otherwise, Hungary could be deprived of its voting rights and its economy would be deliberately disrupted. Brussels suspects Budapest of attempting to blackmail Viktor Orban

At a special meeting on February 1, the leaders of the European Union will make a last attempt to convince Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to approve the allocation of €50 billion in aid to Ukraine from the union, writes the Financial Times.

The publication called the initiative a showdown or a showdown with Budapest and recalled the discussion within the EU on the possibility of depriving Hungary of its voting rights. Such a decision can be made on the basis of Art. 7 of the Treaty on the European Union, but, as Bloomberg clarifies , the authorities of some countries are sensitive to the possibility of such a confrontational solution.

One of the senior diplomats explained that “this is not about Ukraine.” “Orban is using this opportunity to blackmail the institutions and the rest of the EU. If this coincides with his pro-Russian agenda and he is able to derail everything in the future, then even better,” he said.

Art. 7 of the Treaty on European Union allows for restrictions on the rights of a member state, including deprivation of voting rights, if the country “seriously and persistently” violates the principles on which the EU is founded and which are defined in Art. 2 of this treaty (respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, the rule of law and respect for fundamental rights, including the rights of minorities). The application of this article can be initiated at the proposal of 1/3 of the EU member states or the European Commission and with the consent of a majority (2/3) of members of the European Parliament.

If it fails to convince Orban, the European Union is preparing to undermine the Hungarian economy by putting pressure on its weaknesses, the FT found out earlier. We are talking about a weakening currency, a decrease in economic attractiveness, since the country already has high inflation and the highest level of debt service payments in the EU.

As the FT now writes, the EU viewed the leak of the document positively. One European official noted that the document “does not set out a plan, but makes proposals,” and the publication increased pressure on Orban, in addition, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, probably “has something in stock” for the summit. After the article was published, the forint, Hungary's currency, weakened.

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The draft conclusions of the summit say that the European Union proposes to hold annual discussions on aid allocated to Ukraine at the leadership level without the need for unanimous decisions, but Hungary requires an annual vote that would require the support of all EU countries to continue funding. This would give Budapest the right to veto aid to Kyiv. Other EU countries oppose Hungary's idea because such a mechanism would jeopardize the provision of stable and predictable funding for Ukraine.

Hungary also wants to limit the maximum amount of loans for Ukraine to €9 billion, and non-performing loans to €5 billion, Bloomberg found.

The European Union suspects Orban of trying to blackmail the other 26 countries of the union in order to unblock €20 billion in funding that was frozen due to questions about compliance with the rule of law and human rights in Hungary. Hungary also wants to extend EU COVID-19 recovery funds by two years.

One diplomat said Orban could get the money in two ways: either implement human rights recommendations or force the EU to agree to his terms, and he is leaning towards the latter. Bloomberg's interlocutor admitted that the EU will unblock approximately €10 billion, but this will not remove the rule of law requirements for Hungary.