The share of the ruble in payments for exports to Europe has again fallen below 50%

The share of the ruble in settlements with Europe for exports and imports amounted to 49% in December. RBC looked into what currencies RUSSIA traded with different parts of the world in 2023 and what the changes indicate

In December 2023, the share of the ruble in payments for exports with European countries again fell below half - to 49%. The last time it was below 50% was in July 2023, after which it exceeded 51%, as follows from the Central Bank’s data on the structure of currencies in payments for exports and imports by geographic area, which RBC studied.

The Central Bank resumed publication of these statistics in the summer of 2023 after a break of one and a half years. Only now it is divided into geographical areas: Asia, America, Africa, Europe, the Caribbean and Oceania. Previously, data was reflected for the EU , BRICS, CIS, as well as for the largest trading partners ( CHINA , Turkey , India, Belarus, Kazakhstan , etc.). The statistics show the share of the ruble, the currencies of unfriendly countries (DOLLAR and euro) and other currencies, which include the currencies of friendly countries - yuan, rupees, dirhams, etc.

How the structure of currencies when paying for exports changed over the year

In general, the share of the ruble in December 2023 in payments for exports was 36.1%, the share of the dollar and euro - 26.7%, the share of currencies of friendly countries - 37.2%. For comparison: in December 2022, the share of the ruble was 37.2%, the share of dollars and euros was 43.7%, and the share of “friendly” currencies was 19.1%. Thus, with a relatively stable share of ruble payments, there was a decrease in dollar and euro payments against the background of an increase in payments in the currencies of friendly countries. During 2023, the share of the ruble was in the range of 34.6–43.6%, the maximum was recorded in June. In addition to Europe, which includes not only the European Union, but also, for example, Belarus and Moldova, in December the ruble was also ahead of other currencies when paying for Russian exports to the Caribbean, where its share was 91.7%. At the same time, in the European direction, the share of the ruble began to grow sharply in May 2022, although since the beginning of the year before last it remained around 10%. During 2023, the range was 43.7–53%. In December, when paying for exports with Europe, the remaining share was taken by dollars and euros - 41.5%, the currencies of friendly countries accounted for only 9.5%.

RBC Pro development program Master 52 skills in a year The development program is a convenient tool for continuous learning new skills for a successful career If you want to make a breakthrough in your career, start listening to your body What Henry Ford was wrong: 6 bad tips from world business gurus Why challenges paralyze some managers and motivate others Think like Jeff Bezos . What algorithms do successful businessmen use? There is no point in making a super product for months: 6 rules of the founder of “Vkusville” Itzhak Adizes: the main management problem in Russian companies is silence How to manage attention during the day - advice from a professor from the usa Sprinkle ashes on your HEAD and get out of sight: what harms your reputation Alchemist or strategist: who you are as a leader and how this knowledge will help the business How management thinking errors brought Chrysler and Polaroid into trouble How to make a plan so as not to quit what you started halfway: 6 steps Why you are so afraid to delegate. The Economist explains: In settlements with Asia and Africa in December, the currencies of friendly countries were in the lead - 43.4 and 70.2%, respectively. The share of the ruble in settlements with Asia was 33.1%, with Africa - 26.6%. The remaining parts were taken in dollars and euros. With America and Oceania in December, payments were mainly made using dollars and euros - 62.4 and 64.4%, respectively. The share of the ruble in these areas was 35.2% (with America) and 31.5% (with Oceania). How the structure of currencies when paying for imports changed over the year

When paying for imports, the situation looks a little different. In December 2023, the total share of the ruble in all directions was 31%, dollars and euros - 28.2%, and the share of “friendly” currencies - 40.8%. Compared to December 2022, the share of the ruble increased by 2.2 percentage points, the share of the dollar and euro decreased by 21.8 percentage points, and the share of “friendly” currencies jumped by 19.6 percentage points. In December 2023, the ruble was the leader in settlements with Africa (48.1%), Europe (49%) and Oceania (43.6%). In the African direction, the share of dollars and euros was 33.1%, the share of “friendly” currencies was 18.8%. In the European direction - 47.1% (dollars and euros), 3.9% (currencies of friendly countries).

In December, payments with the countries of Asia and the Caribbean were mainly in “friendly” currencies - their share was 55.5 and 43.3%, respectively, with the countries of America - dollars and euros (56.1%). The share of the ruble in settlements with Asia was 24%, with the Caribbean countries - 38.4%, with America - 35.1%. Why the structure of currencies is changing

The reduction in the use of the dollar and euro in foreign trade occurred “against the backdrop of unprecedented sanctions from the US and the EU,” the Bank of Russia explained at the end of 2022. The reorientation of trade flows towards Asia and the change in the currency of settlements under existing contracts with companies from China and other countries led to an increase in settlements in Chinese currency and rubles.

“Over the past two years, the currency structure of exports has undergone significant changes. The share of the ruble and the currencies of neutral countries has increased significantly against the background of a decrease in the share of the use of currencies of unfriendly countries. These changes are due to the growth of trade with the countries of Asia and Africa using national currencies and the currencies of neutral countries,” a representative of the Ministry of Economic Development told RBC. The department expects that the trend of switching to settlements in Russian rubles and the currencies of neutral countries will continue and will be typical for Russia’s main trading partners, he added.

When analyzing Central Bank data, it is necessary to keep in mind that the Central Bank reflects the statistics of foreign exchange payments, says Dmitry Kuznetsov, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy. “For example, a Russian importing company purchases goods from the EU. The contract is denominated in euros. But if the transaction is structured in such a way that the bank debits the amount from her ruble account, the transaction will be reflected in the Central Bank’s statistics as a ruble transaction,” he explains.

The choice of currency is also influenced by the structure of goods. Some commodities are traditionally traded in particular currencies, e.g.oil  - in dollars. Therefore, when their share in the structure of foreign trade changes, the share of the corresponding currencies in trade settlements also changes, Kuznetsov continues. According to him, statistics are also influenced by the characteristics of specific companies participating in the calculations. “Research shows that large companies that actively purchase components and attract external financing are more inclined to use the dollar and euro in their calculations,” explains Kuznetsov.

The process of substituting the dollar and euro will continue, but at a slower pace than before. This is due, among other things, to the liquidity of the currencies of friendly countries, which is lower than that of the dollar and euro, and to the processes of circumventing sanctions and compliance issues related to doing business with counterparties from Russia, says senior lecturer at the Department of World Economy of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs HSE National Research University Ksenia Bondarenko.

Why Europe and other countries use rubles

From April 2022, payments for gas supplied to the EU switched to rubles. Then, in fact, contract prices remained denominated in euros and dollars, but when paying, European companies had to convert them into rubles, recalls Alexander Firanchuk, a senior researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at RANEPA. The fact of the high share of the ruble in trade with European countries is largely due to the scheme of paying for gas in rubles; While the share of gas in Russian exports to EU countries remains high, in total mineral fuels accounted for about 58%, agrees Bondarenko.

Firanchuk draws attention to the fact that when analyzing the basket of currencies in settlements with Europe, it should be remembered that this region includes Belarus, in trade with which the ruble dominates. “The decrease in trade turnover with the EU, while relatively stable with Belarus, also partly explains the increase in the share of the ruble,” the expert adds.

The interest in the ruble share is largely due to the fact that the transition to settlements in it can help mitigate the consequences of secondary sanctions. However, this path seems ineffective in terms of the speed of transition to such calculations and the associated costs, Firanchuk believes. “Expanding the use of rubles with third countries outside the CIS will take considerable time. For example, the share of the ruble in payments for imports from Turkey (6.5% in 2023) is growing too slowly (plus 2.3 percentage points by 2022), and in payments for exports remains negligible (1%, plus 0.47 percentage points by 2022),” he cites the figures. Kuznetsov adds that in light of recent events, after US President Joe Biden signed a decree on secondary sanctions for banking structures in third countries, settlements in rubles and “friendly” currencies do not particularly protect against sanctions risks.

“This is shown by problems in settlements with Turkey and China. If the use of such currencies does not allow avoiding sanctions risks, the question arises, why do it. The convenience of the dollar and euro can outweigh simply because you can spend them in more places. It is now impossible to say that “hard” currencies have lost their hegemony,” the expert sums up.