An American scientist named three factors for a crisis in any state

An analysis of different historical societies at different times showed that there are three main factors that “tell us that a society has entered the path to crisis.” American scientist Pyotr Turchinov spoke about this in an interview with RBC TV channel.

According to him, these are:

• impoverishment of the population;
• the impossibility of new people entering the elite;
• the strength of the state (the ability to collect taxes and pay security forces).

Pyotr Turchin also told how he predicted the onset of political instability in the USA and Great Britain in the 2020s. “It was a scientific prediction, not a prophecy,” he said in an interview with RBC. “And, in particular, I had no assumptions that there would be Trump, for example. Theory cannot predict individual people. But the fact that a person like Trump may appear is precisely part of the theory. Because we have seen many times the emergence of these kinds of populists in societies of the past that fell into crisis,” he added.

Pyotr Turchin was born in 1957 in the USSR and is a biologist by training. In 1977, he emigrated from the country with his father, human rights activist Valentin Turchin. Now Petr Turchin is a specialist in the field of population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics.