Denmark's Saxo Bank has unveiled its annual "shock forecasts" for the global economy, which are based on unlikely events but could nonetheless impact financial markets.
A collection of predictions for 2024, entitled “The End of the Road,” aims to show how the world is approaching the end of the “old normal” and how advanced technologies “solve old problems but also create new, perhaps more dangerous ones.” Experts say the path the world has followed since the 2008 financial crisis (stable geopolitics, low inflation and interest rates) has been disrupted during the covid pandemic and faces an "uncertain future" next year.
Oil at $150 per barrel and the creation of the world Champions League
In mid-2024, the price of oil will jump to $150 per barrel. The sharp rise in prices will spur the restructuring of the Saudi Arabian economy, which will be aimed at turning the country into a “center for tourism, recreation and entertainment.” Against this backdrop, the kingdom will make a successful attempt to buy the rights to host the Champions League, one of the most prestigious football tournaments in the world, from UEFA and transform the competition into a global Champions League.
Global HEALTH crisis due to anti-obesity drugs
Saxo Bank expects the popularity of drugs based on glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) to combat excess weight, which is already considered a “wonder drug for obesity,” to grow in popularity. Prices for drugs will fall, and in some countries they will be included in the list of essential drugs. However, the authors of the forecast warn that the ease of taking the pills will cause people to give up exercise and start eating more junk food. Drug production will exceed demand, and "global obesity rates and associated health problems will rise, leading to lower productivity levels."
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Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, the US government will be forced to increase budget spending to support the economy and avoid social unrest. Inflationary pressure in the country will continue, and foreign investors will continue to withdraw capital; in this regard, the demand for government bonds will be weak, “which will provoke a sharp jump in yield” on them. In an attempt to normalize borrowing costs, the government will exempt government bond proceeds from taxes. “This move will signal the end of capitalism, as money will move from private corporations to the state,” analysts say.
Victory of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the US elections
In 2024, an independent candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr., will win the US presidential election for the first time. His populist messages, aimed “against warmongering Democrats and corporate elites,” will resonate with supporters of both the Democratic Party and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. “The new political era in the United States will begin with a sharp turn away from plutocracy as voters demand an end to inequality, injustice and endless wars,” the forecast says.
Other “shocking predictions”:
crises related to artificial intelligence. Saxo Bank expects that generative AI, which is seen as a way to increase productivity, will become a threat to national security - according to analysts, a scenario is possible in which in one of the developed countries fraudsters will be able to use deepfake technology against a high-ranking official to gain access to top-secret information; The Bank of Japan will abandon the hard cap on government bond yields, which will “cause chaos in global bond markets”; The European Union will introduce a wealth tax of 2% for billionaires, which will cause a shock in the industry: demand for luxury goods will decrease, shares of luxury companies, such as LVMH, Porsche and Ferrari, will collapse.