USA: Cattle market overview for the 11th week of 2021

Cattle prices rose, which was reflected in the cost of Choice MEAT, which rose $1.38 in a week, as well as the cost of Select beef, which rose in price by $1.84. Choice/Select price leverage settled at $10.04. Livestock slaughter, as well as beef production, declined weekly and yearly. Livestock futures are declining in price.

The beef production forecast for the first quarter was lowered from last month due to interruptions in slaughter caused by weather events that swept the US lowlands in mid-February. However, a shift in cattle slaughter from the first quarter to the second, along with higher expectations for cow slaughter in the first half, more than offset this decline. As a result, the beef production forecast for 2021 has been raised to 27.6 billion pounds.

Due to bad weather conditions in February, prices for fattened livestock remain unchanged from last month. January beef imports were 224 million pounds, down 8.1% from a year earlier, the lowest shipment since 2005. The annual beef import forecast for 2021 has been revised down due to expected low supplies from Australia and New Zealand and increased competition from Asian beef demand. Beef exports in January were 246 million pounds, albeit down 1 million pounds from a year ago, but still indicative of strong exports to CHINA . The beef EXPORT forecast for the first quarter was unchanged from last month at 750 million pounds.

WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

AVERAGE WEEKLY LIVESTOCK PRICE

Sale of livestock, heads

Average weight

average price

as of 12.03.2021

as of 19.03.2021

Growth,%

as of 12.03.2021

as of 19.03.2021

Growth,%

as of 12.03.2021

as of 19.03.2021

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

27 076

28 010

3.4%

1492

1504

0.8%

114

114

0.6%

Heifers (live weight)

16854

10555

-37.4%

1366

1332

-2.5%

113.38

114.25

0.8%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

10535

8383

-20.4%

954

952

-0.2%

179.31

181.28

1.1%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

5487

1846

-66.4%

865

860

-0.6%

179.6

181.66

1.1%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

as of 03/20/2021

A week earlier

A year ago

Growth per week,%

Growth per year,%

(approximately)

(approximately)

(actually)

Slaughter volume

624 000

647 000

660 000

-3.6%

-5.5%

Live weight

1384

1391

1 372

-0.5%

0.9%

slaughter weight

834

838

830

-0.5%

0.5%

Beef production (million pounds)

519

541

546.6

-4.1%

-5.0%

CME, livestock futures

Week 10

Week 11

Growth per week,%

April

119.00

118.40

-0.5%

June

120.43

118.68

-1.5%

August

119.78

117.78

-1.7%

CME, fattening cattle futures

March

136.35

134.68

-1.2%

April

143.23

139.43

-2.7%

May

148.38

144.68

-2.5%