The decrease in demand and purchasing power of the population of Ukraine has led to a shortage of pork and lard

Per capita pork consumption in Ukraine has fallen by 7 kg or 30% over the past few years, Olga Makhno, senior pork production analyst at the Ukrainian Livestock Industry Association, said during a press conference in the capital city of Kyiv. Despite the fall in domestic demand, the country is on the verge of a shortage of pork and bacon - the main product of Ukrainian cuisine.

Difficult years for Ukrainian pork consumers

The last few years have been difficult for the population of the country. The fall in purchasing power had a strong impact on consumption. The country's MEAT Industry Association estimated that it was 15 kg per capita in 2020, compared to 45 kg in the European Union and 30 kg in RUSSIA. As explained by the DIRECTOR of the association Mykola Babenko, the consumption of meat and dairy products in Ukraine is 2-3 times lower than the minimum level recommended by doctors.

Low incomes are changing traditions

Ukraine has historically been perceived as a country of pork lovers, with a particularly high demand for lard. However, today the per capita consumption of this type of meat in Ukraine is not only lower than in Russia, but also in Belarus and the Baltic countries.

The main reason is the relatively low purchasing power of the local population. According to Babenko, some Ukrainian families do not see red meat and fish on their tables for months. According to the latest purchasing power survey by the German market research institute GfK, in 2019 Europeans will have an average of 14,739 euros per person available for spending and saving. Ukraine ranks last with a per capita purchasing power of 1,830 euros.

The pork crisis continues

According to Makhno, against the backdrop of falling demand, pork production in the country is also falling. The industry has an unprecedented low profitability. “The selling price in live weight by the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 was 38-40 hryvnia / kg (1.40 euros). In 2019, it amounted to 44.5 hryvnia / kg (1.50 euros).” Purchase prices are falling despite a 20-40% jump in production costs.

Most farms have a production cost of 40 hryvnia/kg (€1.40), meaning they either operate at zero profit margins or suffer losses, Makhno said. This situation is likely to lead to a further drop in production, and this, in turn, will hinder the growth of pork consumption in the domestic market.

Affordable pork imports stifle industry

More affordable pork imports from the Netherlands and Denmark further worsen the state of Ukraine's pig industry, Makhno said. Import deliveries only marginally support domestic demand. However, in the future, Ukraine may lose most of its pig farms and become a major importer of pork to Europe.