Ten years of African swine fever in the EU: how has the disease evolved?

Domestic pigs

Since the disease's emergence in Europe, there has been a steady increase in outbreaks until 2023, when a historic peak of 4,513 cases was reached due to the disease's emergence in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. However, a sharp decline to 752 cases was observed in 2024 .

The most critical years were from 2018 to 2023. During this period, ASF spread rapidly, affecting mainly Eastern Europe, with major peaks in countries such as Romania, Bosnia, and Croatia.

Romania has the highest number of overall outbreaks, with the most critical years being 2018 (1,163 outbreaks) and 2019 (1,724 outbreaks). In 2023, 740 outbreaks were registered, which is still a significant number, but lower than in previous years. In 2024, the fewest outbreaks were recorded since the disease was confirmed (215).

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia stand out for their large outbreaks in 2023 with 1,508 and 1,124 outbreaks respectively, although both countries saw a significant decline to 33 and 6 outbreaks in 2024.

Poland has seen a stable trend with a moderate increase over time, peaking in 2021 (124 outbreaks) and ending with 44 outbreaks in 2024.

Serbia has also seen a notable recent increase, with 991 outbreaks in 2023 and 304 in 2024.

Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia reported low numbers, with cases spread across the period. For example, in Bulgaria, the peak was 44 outbreaks in 2019 and ended with just one outbreak in 2024.