The IMF does not intend to resume negotiations with Belarus.

The IMF does not intend to resume negotiations with Lukashenka.

The mission of the International Monetary Fund will work in MINSK from October 26 to November 10. As First Deputy Finance Minister of Belarus Maxim Yermolovich reported earlier , negotiations on a new program with the IMF have been suspended for the time being. What will the next visit of the IMF mission to Belarus give, the publication asked the DOCTOR of economic sciences Boris Zheliba .

- What is the purpose of the next visit of the IMF mission, because the negotiations with the fund have been suspended for the time being?

— And in previous years, the IMF came to Belarus twice a year to monitor the situation. And although negotiations on a specific program have been suspended, in general, cooperation with the IMF continues. I believe that the IMF has hope that the economy of Belarus will more and more approach the market standards that the fund preaches. And there is some movement. For example, the IMF proposed switching to 100% payment for housing and communal services, removing cross-subsidization, and we are still moving in this direction, to the displeasure of the population.

At the same time, I don't think there is momentum to resume negotiations.

— Who is more interested in whom today – Belarus in the IMF or the IMF in Belarus?

— After all, Belarus is in the IMF. Yes, the IMF, like any creditor, seeks to receive interest on loans that it issues to various states. But, as you know, the Belarusian economy has long been in captivity of the financial pyramid, we cannot independently service the internal and external public debt without refinancing, we constantly take new loans in order to repay those that are due to be repaid, and in this regard, RUSSIA remains the main assistant to the Belarusian leadership . But the IMF would be very helpful, because today Russia gives, and tomorrow it may not be able to lend to us in such volumes. And then we will again have to remember the IMF and resume negotiations, which have now been paused. We need any creditor, especially the IMF, whose loans are cheap and profitable.

- Next year, Belarus must pay more than 3 billion dollars of external debt. Will we be late with negotiations on an IMF loan, since Russia is unlikely to be able to provide Belarus with so many funds?

- The fact of the matter is that we are entering a situation of uncertainty: who will give us loans next? The same Russia, or CHINA . But basically, large sums were allocated to us by the Eurasian Bank, and this is Russian money. The state of our economy depends on Russia's capabilities. And in the future, increasingly severe sanctions are imposed on Russia by the United States and, possibly, by the EU. And what will happen to the Russian market, whether it will be able to buy our main exports, is unclear.

It is necessary either to deeply reform the economy, as required by the IMF, or to hope that, let's say, that external factors will be more favorable for us, for example, world prices for oil , gas, potash fertilizers will rise. But the prices of the products we sell are not in a hurry to rise. The situation of uncertainty remains for the Belarusian economy.

— What part of the external debt Belarus is able to repay on its own?

- If we estimate roughly enough, we can repay from a third to a half of external debts at the expense of our own foreign exchange earnings. Maximum half.

- If there are not enough loans to refinance the external debt, what will happen to us?

- If the state does not fulfill its financial obligations, this is called the well-known word "default".