China and the EU reported a decrease in the import of goods to Russia amid sanctions

The European Union reported a drop in exports to RUSSIA in March by 55% yoy. CHINA already has data for April: shipments from there decreased by 26%. RBC collected data from different countries about

Exports of goods from 27 EU countries to Russia in March 2022 in value terms fell by 55% - to €3.42 billion - compared to €7.65 billion in March of the previous year, according to Eurostat data updated on May 11. There was also operational data on the EXPORT of goods from China to Russia in April: these deliveries decreased by 25.8% by April 2021, to $3.8 billion, follows from the data of the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and RBC's calculations. In March 2022, Chinese exports of goods to Russia amounted to $3.83 billion.

According to Chinese customs, the main export of China to Russia is electromechanical products (machinery, electronic products, vehicles) - $ 29.4 billion, or 58% of China's total merchandise exports to Russia in 2020, RBC reported with reference to the Russian-Chinese "road map" to increase bilateral trade, signed in early February 2022. Official Beijing generally stated that, despite the Russian special operation in Ukraine that began at the end of February, trade between Russia and China continues as usual, REUTERS noted. However, a number of Chinese companies (for example, drone supplier DJI Technology) have suspended sales in Russia.

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The Federal Customs Service (FCS) had previously suspended the publication of monthly data on Russia's foreign trade, without specifying a possible date for its resumption. Data for February and March, including by countries - trading partners and product categories, were not published. Stopped the monthly publication of data on foreign trade in goods (according to the methodology of the balance of payments) and the Bank of Russia.

Reduced supplies of machinery and equipment from the EU

An idea of ​​the trends in Russia's international trade is given by the mirror data of the statistics of countries from among its largest trading partners. “While no official trade data has been released, data from trading partners point to a sharp decline in imports to Russia in March, indicative of lower domestic consumption,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) wrote in a regional outlook update on May 10. On the reduction of almost five times the supply of goods from the United States to Russia in March, RBC wrote on May 6.

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Imports of goods to Russia have stabilized in terms of weight and value at levels close to 2020 volumes, Ruslan Davydov, First Deputy HEAD of the Federal Customs Service, said on April 25. As noted by Interfax, the FCS did not specify what period they are talking about - most likely, about imports from non-CIS countries in April. In the same month of 2020, according to the Federal Customs Service, imports of goods from non-CIS countries amounted to about $15 billion.

As part of the European Union, Russia's largest trading partners have traditionally been Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. German exports to Russia in March decreased by 2.3 times compared to March 2021 (€2.32 billion) to €983.5 million. As the German statistics office indicated on May 4, exports to Russia in March decreased by 62% compared to February (adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects) “due to sanctions imposed as a result of Ukraine’s fight against Russia, further measures to restrict exports and non-sanctioned behavior of market participants.” Under the latter, the service means voluntary refusals of a number of European firms from deliveries to Russia due to image risks and fears of further sanctions. As a result, Russia dropped to 26th among German export destinations in March from 15th in February.

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Deliveries of cars from Germany (cars, trucks) and auto parts decreased to €19.4 million, compared with €305 million in March 2021 (€230.7 million in February 2022). The export of aircraft and their parts from Germany to Russia in March fell to almost zero (in March 2021 it was €4.9 million and €151.5 million in February 2022). Finally, the export of a variety of equipment and electrical machines (including machine tools, engines, turbines, semiconductor devices, microcircuits, some household appliances, etc. - these are groups 84 and 85 of the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity) in March amounted to € 201 million - against €885 million in the same month last year and €656 million in February.

Supplies of pharmaceutical products from Germany to Russia in March, on the contrary, increased to €281.2 million, compared with €226 million in March of the previous year.

Exports of equipment, mechanical devices, electrical machines (groups 84 and 85) from Italy to Russia fell to €102 million in March, compared to €246 million in March 2021, Eurostat data show. Deliveries from Italy of aircraft and their parts have practically vanished (in March 2021 it was €20.3 million).

Since the end of February 2022, the European Union has applied several rounds of export restrictions against Russia, including banning the supply of goods and technologies in the aviation, shipping and space industries, oil refining products, luxury goods, a wide range of equipment (burners for liquid fuels, tunneling machines, some machine tools, transformers and batteries, particle accelerators, some railroad locomotives, fire engines, etc.).

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Decline in supplies from Asia

Taiwan's exports to Russia in April decreased by 67% - from $88.1 million in April 2021 to $29.1 million in April 2022, according to data from the Taiwan Ministry of Economy. From this territory, mainly computers and their components, as well as auto parts, are exported to Russia, the ministry said. RBC did not find data on trade with Russia from other countries for April 2022.

Statistics for March is also available from SOUTH KOREA and Turkey (those among the top ten trading partners of Russia in 2021). South Korean deliveries to Russia more than halved in March to $352 million. However, exports from Turkey and Japan to Russia declined not so much over the same period, by 32-38% year-on-year. Turkish exports to Russia in March amounted to $274.4 million, of which about $54 million fell on machinery and equipment (groups 84 and 85 of trade nomenclature), about $32 million - on fruits, including citrus fruits. Deliveries of machinery and equipment decreased in annual terms by 36%, fruits - by 32%.

In March 2022, 0.05% of Turkish merchandise exports were denominated in Russian rubles (the equivalent of $11.1 million - two times less than in February), according to the data of the Turkish statistical office.

The export of goods from Japan to Russia in March decreased by 32.4% compared to March of the previous year, to 50.19 billion yen ($423 million at the average exchange rate of the month). Of these, almost 59% are vehicles (cars, buses, motorcycles) and spare parts, their shipments decreased by 23.8% by March 2021, according to Japanese customs data (.pdf). Japan has joined the international sanctions against Russia, including banning the supply of luxury goods, dual-use goods (including semiconductors) and oil refining equipment to Russia.

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Growth of deliveries from Russia

Although foreign deliveries to Russia fell in the spring of 2022, Russian deliveries to these countries, on the contrary, increased in value terms. Thus, according to Eurostat, imports from Russia to 27 EU countries in March increased by 75% to €16.2 billion (compared to €9.2 billion in March 2021 and €16.1 billion in February 2022). ). Imports from Russia to China in April 2022 increased by 53% compared to April 2021, to $8.9 billion. And imports from Russia to Japan in March increased by 89% compared to March last year, to 187.2 billion yen, or $1.58 billion. Including purchases from Russia worth $1 billion were provided by mineral fuels (oil, LNG, coal).

Last year, Russia exported $262 billion worth of oil, oil products, gas and coal, which accounted for 53% of total Russian exports. In January-April 2022, the average price of Russian Urals oil was $84.7 per barrel, which is 40% higher than in the same period a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported.

The Bank of Russia expects that exports of goods and services from the country in 2022 will decline to $505 billion (from $550 billion a year earlier), and imports of goods and services to $321 billion (from $379 billion in 2021). The Central Bank predicts the average price of Urals oil for 2022 at $75 per barrel (taking into account the discounts at which Russian raw materials are sold).