Scientists have determined the "fork" of the population of Russia until the end of the XXI century

HSE demographers have prepared a long-term forecast of Russia's population. 30 scenarios describe options from a sharp decline to growth over 215 million people. The most probable is a decrease to 137.5 million,

What conclusions did the experts come to?

Long-term forecasts of Russia's population dynamics suggest a "wide range" from 67.4 million to 216.7 million people, but the most likely scenario is a decrease in the population to 137.5 million by the end of the 21st century. These conclusions were reached by HSE scientists in their forecast of the number and demographic burden of the country's population until 2100, which was reviewed by RBC. Even with the effects of the pandemic, their baseline expectations are more optimistic than the 2019 UN population forecast.

The long-term demographic forecast has a wide margin of uncertainty depending on the parameters of the assumptions and should be used with caution, warn its authors Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik from the Higher School of Economics. However, this is the only way that allows you to look much further than any socio-demographic development programs or the Rosstat demographic forecast, the latest version of which was completed in 2019 and covered the period up to 2035.

In total, HSE researchers developed 30 possible scenarios. Five of them suggest a relative stability of the population in the range of 146-156 million people, nine options - an increase to 160 million and above, 16 - a decrease in the number below 140 million, including 11
options indicate a decline below 120 million.

“In general, the results of long-term forecasting show a wide range of possible values ​​for the size of the Russian population, which range from 67.4 million to 216.7 million people. These values ​​define some kind of boundaries beyond which the population will not go. The lower extremum is a variant with low fertility, mortality and zero migration, the upper extremum is a combination of high scenarios of all three components,” the forecast says.

At the same time, a high forecast in the short term (until 2024) leads to a decrease in the population by 900 thousand, to 145.2 million people, the researchers note. By 2030, it will be 600,000 people below current values. In this case, the national goal of achieving sustainable population growth by 2030 cannot be met, they state.

Demographers cited the consequences of the pandemic as the reason for such dynamics. In addition, they pointed out that favorable hypotheses about fertility and mortality will not ensure population growth without migration gain. This trend has been in place since at least 2018.

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Researchers believe that the most likely scenario is a decrease in the country's population to 137.5 million citizens by the end of the 21st century. This scenario assumes a reduction in the number of Russians by 10%, to 131 million, by the mid-2070s and growth within 5% in the future. The population decline will average 353,000 people a year, and the migration inflow will be 245,000 people a year.

RBC sent a request to the Ministry of Labor.

On what premises is the forecast based?

When forming three forecast scenarios (high, medium - most probable - and low), the experts relied on the following main prerequisites:

Inclusion in its framework of the inhabitants of the Crimea

This increased the population of Russia by 2.3 million people, the researchers pointed out. For the reporting point for forecasts, they took an indicator of 146.2 million people - the result of 2020. According to Rosstat (.xls), in 2021 the population of the country decreased to 145.6 million.

Accounting for the latest trends in mortality, fertility and migration associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 has reduced life expectancy in 2020 by 1.75 years, to 66.49 years for men and 76.43 years for women.

The range of possible life expectancy for women by the end of the century was determined by researchers as 83.5-90.5 years, and for men - 74.9-85.7 years, depending on the scenario. They noted that the recovery of the indicator to the pre-pandemic level for women will occur earlier than for men: by 2022 in the high version of the forecast, by 2023-2024 on average, and by 2026-2029 in the low version.

The increase in the indicator will be due to the fact that in the long term Western standards of prevention, treatment and rehabilitation from the consequences of various diseases, including those of an infectious nature, will spread in Russia, experts believe. A positive factor can be considered the results of a foreign study, which show a hypothetical possibility to overcome the 130-year milestone of human life already in the 21st century, the authors note.

The natural population decline in Russia for the year exceeded 1 million people Economics

Positive migration growth

After a sharp decline in 2020, the migration increase will recover, according to the medium forecast, by the mid-2030s, reaching an annual value of about 250 thousand people. This will be in line with the 2011-2019 averages.

The pace of Russia's economic development will be a fundamental factor for potential migrants to choose their country of destination, the report says. However, the growth in per capita GDP of neighboring countries, such as Kazakhstan and China , as well as the aging of the population in these countries, elevates them to the category of Russian competitors for human capital, experts warn. According to Rosstat, the migration increase in Russia in 2021 amounted to 429.9 thousand people.

VEB experts suggested attracting migrants with financial bonuses Economics

Gradual increase in the birth rate

In 2020 and 2021 in Russia, the birth rate (showing the average number of births per woman of reproductive age) was 1.5 children per woman. The high scenario assumes that this indicator will rise to 2.5 by the end of the century, the medium scenario will rise to 1.85, and the low scenario will decrease to 1.4.

The researchers also predicted the average age of the mother at the birth of her first child. The most active rates of its increase are characteristic of the high scenario — by 2100, the average age of mothers will reach 34.4 years; according to the medium scenario, 33.1 years; and according to the low scenario, 31.9 years. At the end of 2021, the average age of the first birth was 26 years old, RBC wrote.

The Ministry of Labor warned about the risks of a decrease in the birth rate in the coming years Economy

Comparison with other forecasts

Despite the fact that the expectations of HSE researchers take into account the negative consequences of the pandemic, they turned out to be more optimistic than the estimates of Western colleagues three years ago. According to the latest UN demographic forecast, completed in 2019, Russia will have 126.1 million inhabitants by the end of the 21st century. By mid-2035, there will be a decrease to 141.1 million citizens, and by 2050 - to 135.8 million.

The UN did not take into account the population of Crimea as part of Russia, but the difference is not only due to this, HSE demographers note. In their opinion, the organization traditionally underestimates the migration growth.

In July 2022, scientists from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences also presented their demographic forecast. It is calculated up to 2035 and assumes a decrease in the population to 143.9 million in the baseline and to 138.7 million people in the inertial scenario.

What other experts say

Forecasting 80 years ahead is more of a demographic exercise than solid knowledge, but the work was done at a good professional level, said Irina Kalabikhina, head of the Department of Population at the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. “We can say with more confidence that we will fall into the designated “fork,” she believes.

At the same time, the expert confirmed that an increase in the population is impossible without a faster growth in migration.

“There is a consensus among demographers that in developed countries (in demographic terms, Russia also belongs to them ), population growth is possible mainly due to migration. Each country has its own “size” of necessary replacement migration, but without it, as a rule, population growth cannot be ensured,” she said.

The study by HSE scientists is based on the theory of the Second Demographic Transition, which reflects fundamental shifts in the life cycle of people, including an increase in the average age of marriage, the average age of motherhood, the widespread use of effective contraceptive methods, and the growing desire of young men and women to obtain a higher education. education, etc.

The decline in the population to 137.5 million people predicted by colleagues in the central scenario is not at all catastrophic, said Igor Efremov, a researcher at the international laboratory of demography and human capital at the Gaidar Institute. Against the background of the expected decline in the population in many other countries in Europe and Asia, Russia's demographic dynamics will not be among the worst, he believes.

Women in their 40s have given birth to a record number of children since 1990 Economics

The expert added that the increase in migration in the current situation is not a panacea. “If the birth rate in Russia remains at its current low level and there is a large lag behind advanced countries in terms of life expectancy, even an increase in migration attractiveness will not be able to prevent a decline in the country's population,” he warned.

At the moment, it is difficult to imagine what factors could lead to a radical increase in the birth rate compared to the current figure of 1.5 children per woman, said Boris Kopeikin, First Vice President of the CSR. Therefore, a gradual decline in the population looks like the most likely scenario so far.