Three stages of transformation. Economist about the Russian economy in crisis

Economist Pavel Golubev

Under the new conditions, Russia will have to go through three stages of economic transformation, and the Kaliningrad region risks becoming an ideal geopolitical hostage in Europe. Pavel Golubev, an economist from Kaliningrad, expressed this opinion in the Royal Gates magazine.

First step

At the first stage, external conditions change. Exports will become even more raw materials, and imports will become purely technical in nature, which “will ruin some and force others to buy up church candles,” the expert believes.

“Russia is undoubtedly an integral part of the world economy, two or three percent of which may well turn it over, overturn and even partially destroy it. Russia did not have a special economic path. Now will be. Because a non-special, ordinary, standard way for everyone is no longer available to Russia,” Golubev is sure.

He notes that the Kaliningrad region has lost almost all of its geographical advantages, "getting hurt right away and on the forehead," and inflation in the region turned out to be higher than in the rest of Russia.

“The Kaliningrad region is a concentrate-aggregator of the first stage of economic transformation,” the economist believes.

Second phase

The second stage of the transformation of the economy - restructuring - will begin by the summer of 2022. Three key areas will be rebuilt: logistics, industry and consumption.

“Not a single Colombian drug lord even dreamed of what routes Russian business is now considering for the delivery of goods from abroad. Kaliningrad is logically leading this movement. Chartering ferries from Bulgaria to Novorossiysk, hiring Lithuanian truckers for the expedition of Turkish cargo through Europe, updating rail transportation and even special flights of airlines that are looking for an opportunity to fly at least not at a big loss. Dozens of contracts are concluded with enterprises from Turkey, Kazakhstan, China , Iraq, Iran, Vietnam a day,” continues Pavel Golubev.

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The state will have to subsidize loans for light industry enterprises. At the same time, there are huge market voids in the domestic industry, if they are not filled quickly, then they will be filled with imports from China, India, Kazakhstan, and so on, the economist believes.

The last stage of restructuring at the second stage of the transformation of the economy will be the quality of consumption.

“Unlike logistics and industry, consumption is not so sensitive to such shocks. Moreover, the recent massive purchase of buckwheat and sugar only shows that the consumer cannot and does not want to understand the full scale and long-term consequences of structural changes. He thinks like an avid consumer: "Something bad happened, I'll buy food and wait until it's good." It won't be good. It will be painful and even painful to rebuild, and most importantly, it will take a long time. The restructuring of consumption will form into a new model by the beginning of spring 2023, but the key period will be the purchase for the New Year in December 2022. Then the consumer will give the only correct answer to the current situation - he rationalizes his request, abandoning everything superfluous, switching to substitutes for the goods familiar to him,

Third stage

In the third stage, the economy will begin to adapt and try to grow. There has never been such an economic challenge in the history of modern Russia.

What will happen to prices

Prices will rise in proportion to the fall of the ruble, rising inflation, the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the greed of sellers. Without state intervention, the situation with prices will take too long to adjust on its own. Already, the authorities can find options for importing fruits and vegetables to Kaliningrad, bypassing Lithuania and Belarus - for example, delivering from Turkey through Novorossiysk in transit. But with this route, the cargo goes through double customs clearance and is subject to duty twice - first in Novorossiysk under the "import 40" regime, and then in Kaliningrad under the "import 78" regime. Because of this, the cost of the product will be 15% more expensive.

What will happen to real estate

According to the economist, today the real estate market exists solely due to the 90-day rule for mortgage lenders (the period of validity of the old rate from the moment the mortgage loan is approved) and people who have accumulated cash and now want to invest it. However, on May 28, 90 days will expire from the date of issuing the last rate at 10%, and then about 80% of potential homebuyers will leave the market. The other 10% with cash will already buy their apartments at the peak and only 10% of those who dare to take out a loan for 10-20 years at 20+ percent per annum will remain.

“And here, the developers will have to pull liquidity out of the frozen meters, “so that the shark does not stop and die.” And looking for money in a low market is another task. The only way will be a significant reduction in selling prices. The commercial real estate market will be even worse. Against the background of problems with imports, rising costs and an extreme decline in purchasing power, business will begin to collapse, freeing up thousands of meters. Rental rates will go down, and areas in small, medium and large shopping centers will be given to anchor tenants for a communal apartment, just to generate traffic,” Golubev is sure.

As RBC Kaliningrad wrote, earlier Governor Anton Alikhanov said that the region's economy would take several years to adapt to work under sanctions from Western countries.