Rosstat estimated the dynamics of the Russian population by 2030

By 2030, the population of RUSSIA, excluding new regions, may decrease by 3 million people, Rosstat admitted . The reasons are an increase in the proportion of elderly people and a decrease in the number of births. Population forecast in new regions by 2024 - 3.23 million people

Rosstat has made a preliminary assessment of the dynamics of the Russian population on the horizon until 2030. This is stated in the materials for the meeting of the Presidium of the State Council on the development of the labor market, held in Veliky Novgorod at the end of September (RBC has a version of the report dated September 8, the authenticity was confirmed by a source familiar with the contents).

“As of January 1, 2023, the permanent population of the Russian Federation was 146,447.4 thousand people. According to the draft average version of the demographic forecast of Rosstat, the permanent population of the Russian Federation, excluding new territories, will decline. By 2030, compared to 2023, this reduction will be 3192.3 thousand people,” the materials say.

Thus, by 2030, the number of Russians excluding the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions may decrease to 143.255 million people, which will be the minimum since 2012. As of January 1, 2012, the population of Russia was 143.06 million people. In 2014, Crimea with approximately 1.9 million inhabitants became part of the country.

For comparison: the average scenario of the current demographic forecast of Rosstat, published at the beginning of 2020 and prepared before the CORONAVIRUS pandemic and the All-Russian Population Census, assumes a population reduction of 2.1 million people - from 146.37 million at the beginning of 2023 to 144.27 million at the beginning of 2030.

Population loss is a challenge for the country’s economic development, especially when it occurs against the backdrop of growing demand for labor, as stated in materials to the State Council.

In August, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is now “fully faced with the consequences of the demographic failures of past decades” and called for “additional support for families, expectant mothers, and support for our traditional values.” On September 21, the HEAD of the State Council Commission on Social Policy, Andrei Nikitin, at a meeting of the State Council Presidium led by Putin, proposed extending the national project “Demography” until 2030 (it is now due to be completed in 2024). At the same meeting, Putin pointed out the need for measures to develop the labor market to support steps in the field of demography. “This is all connected to each other, of course,” he emphasized.

The draft forecast does not include the population of new territories (statistical information on them has not yet been integrated into all-Russian statistics). As RBC previously wrote, by September 2.83 million Russian passports had been issued in four new regions, and by the beginning of 2024, the projected population in them was determined by the authorities at 3.227 million people.

Read PIONERPRODUKT .by New profession - lawyer-programmer. Why is demand for them growing? The food crisis did not happen. But prices will rise due to El Niño How to quickly calm down before an interview: four tricks Who in Russian IT is now paid ₽500 thousand, and who has already begun to be cut

Rosstat is completing work on a new long-term demographic forecast, which will extend until 2036. An updated version of the demographic forecast, taking into account the results of the population census, as well as demographic trends in recent years, will be published before the end of October, Rosstat told RBC. RBC sent a request to the representative of Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova.

What prerequisites formed the basis for the forecast?

To reflect various assumptions about the future dynamics of demographic processes, calculations are carried out by Rosstat in three options (medium, high and low). The average version of the forecast does indeed assume a reduction in population by 2030, Rosstat confirmed to RBC, without commenting on specific indicators. They said that it takes into account the following indicators and scenario variables.

Absolute number of births

This indicator is predicted based on scenarios for the average age of the mother at the birth of a child and the total fertility rate (reflects the number of children born on average to one woman throughout the entire reproductive period, which is defined as 15–50 years), the department explained. The total fertility rate in 2022 was 1.416, down from 2021, when it was 1.505.

“In the forecast until 2036, one of the key forks is related to the ability to maintain the total fertility rate at the level of 1.5 children per woman,” Rosstat noted. They added that they expect the indicator to stabilize at this level, including through active social policy and the implementation of programs to support motherhood and childhood.

However, the absolute number of births will decrease due to a decrease in the number of women of active reproductive age, the statistical service indicated. In 2023, the number of newborns will reach its lowest level since 1999, RBC wrote with reference to the draft budget of the Social Fund, prepared on the basis of the draft average version of the demographic forecast of Rosstat. According to it, the figure will constantly decrease over the coming years and by the end of 2026 will be only 1.14 million people.

Mortality rate

To predict the number of deaths, various mortality scenarios are used, including taking into account life expectancy at birth and the infant mortality rate.

Thus, life expectancy in 2022 was 72.73 years and it is expected that it will continue to grow, Rosstat noted. According to Rosstat's operational estimates, by the end of August 2023, life expectancy has increased to 73.4 years. As a result, demographic aging of the population will be relevant for Russia, that is, an increase in the proportion of older people (with higher mortality rates) in the population structure, the statistics service predicts.

Infant mortality in 2022 was 4.4 per thousand babies born alive, having decreased by more than 15% compared to 2018, Rosstat recalled. “Current trends give hope that infant mortality will also continue to decline. In particular, over the seven months of 2023, infant mortality decreased by 13.7% compared to January-July 2022,” they indicated.

Migration

Accounting for the migration factor includes information on the number of arrivals and departures. Forecasting this component is becoming more complicated due to the unstable foreign economic situation, Rosstat stated. They reported that they forecast a net migration increase, but it will not reverse the population decline.

“Migration population growth (on average about 200 thousand people annually), included in the average version of the forecast, will not be able to compensate for the natural population decline,” the department reported.

According to the results of January-July, the migration increase in Russia amounted to 139.9 thousand people. In 2022, this figure was at 34.9 thousand people.

Rosstat receives data on migration from the territorial bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - their reliability is worse than that of data on the natural movement of the population, experts pointed out. In particular, the specifics of migration registration are such that “departed” are understood not as those who actually left the country, but as those removed from registration (when the expiration date of temporary registration arrives, migrants are automatically considered to have left for the country of their previous residence). Not all such people leave the borders of Russia.

Is it realistic to achieve population growth?

In recent years, the actual dynamics of demographic indicators most often fall between the medium and low versions of the Rosstat forecast, notes a researcher at the Institute of Economic Policy. E.T. Gaidar Igor Efremov. Therefore, a population reduction of approximately 3.2 million people in the updated draft forecast, which is exactly between the medium and low options of the previous version, looks realistic, he believes.

At the same time, according to the expert, the state has the potential to significantly improve the demographic situation in Russia. Positive dynamics require a reduction in mortality, an increase in the birth rate and an increase in population growth, he lists.

Thus, an increase in births is possible in the event of a significant increase in government spending to support families at the birth of second and subsequent children, Efremov believes. In order to increase life expectancy, which quickly recovered to the level of early 2020 after the covid-19 pandemic but has almost stopped growing since March 2023, “aggressive restrictive measures” are needed on the main factors of preventable mortality, especially strong ALCOHOL consumption and smoking . And finally, the dynamics of migration growth are largely related to the state and dynamics of the Russian economy, the demographer believes.

He notes that the regions that have become part of Russia introduce great uncertainty into the demographic dynamics of the near future: under current conditions, it is impossible to maintain reliable demographic records there.

“If we include existing approximate estimates in all-Russian statistics, this will create a large error for all all-Russian demographic calculations and will greatly reduce the quality of Russian demographic statistics,” Efremov concludes.