Bloomberg explained the "anomaly" of investment in fixed assets in Russia

Despite the "anomaly" with the growth of investment in 2023, this year the agency's economists predict their decline.Companies invested in import substitution and diversification of supplies

In RUSSIA, investment in fixed assets in 2022 grew by 6%, despite forecasts of a decline to 20%, BLOOMBERG Economics estimated. At the same time, according to the forecast of the agency, in 2023 they can be reduced by 5%.

According to Finam economist Olga Belenkaya, declining corporate earnings and pressure from sanctions will halt the momentum and exacerbate uncertainty, which could lead to a sharp decline in investment, albeit on a smaller scale than the first forecast for 2022.

“It appears that investment backed by the government and public corporations may increase further, but private sector investment will decline,” she said.

Rosstat sharply revised the trajectory of the economic downturn due to seasonality Economics

Economist Alexander Isakov also believes that the "anomaly" with investments will come to naught this year. “During a typical downturn, private investment suffers the most, while household consumption declines the least. But not at this time. We believe that the anomaly will disappear in 2023, as high uncertainty and business risks in Russia deter investment,” economist Alexander Isakov said.

Earlier, Rosstat reported that in January-September 2022, investment activity in Russia increased by 5.9% in annual terms, and by 3.1% in real terms in the third quarter. The main drivers of investment in the context of the structural transformation of the economy were the need to change economic relations and technological processes, as well as the implementation of the policy of import substitution, according to the December report of the Bank of Russia.

The HEAD of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, said in December that, based on the dynamics for the nine months of 2022, it is already clear that there will be a positive investment trend at the end of the whole year. Reshetnikov called the increase in investment a condition for the restructuring of the economy and its further growth, but in the current conditions there are a number of challenges that suppress investment activity.

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According to him, the consequence of economic uncertainty is the unwillingness of businesses to take on long-term risks, Reshetnikov said.

“The answer to these challenges should be to strengthen the role of the state as an investor of last resort,” the minister said.