Bloomberg: Global beef demand plummets in 2022

In addition, according to BLOOMBERG, beef consumption decreased last year in Brazil, the US and the UK. U.S. beef purchases are down 4% in 2022, according to NielsenIQ data. U.S. beef demand is projected to fall by almost 5% this year, while in the UK, beef purchases from grocery stores and restaurants are already down 5.8% year-over-year, sales of processed meats are down 22%, steaks are down. by 19%.

The HEAD of the National MEAT Association (NMA), Sergey Yushin, told Agroinvestor that the production of cattle meat in the world has hardly grown over the past six to seven years - the increase was less than 1%, while other types of meat added several percent per year, excluding pork production in 2018 due to African swine fever in CHINA. According to him, this is primarily due to the fact that the demand and consumption of meat is primarily growing in developing countries, and their population, for economic reasons, chooses more affordable types - broiler and pork. Therefore, the share of beef in world consumption has decreased from 24% to 20% since 2000, while poultry meat consumption has grown very rapidly and now accounts for more than 35%, the share of pork has decreased from 38% to 33%, the share of lamb has remained stable - 12%.

Today, on average, a person consumes a little less than 9 kg of beef per year on the planet, and in this regard , RUSSIA , based on official statistics, looks better with a consumption of 14 kg, but in absolute terms, per capita consumption is declining, as is the share of beef in the diet (now no more than 16-17% compared to 45% 20-25 years ago). At the same time, the consumption of all types of meat in Russia is steadily growing.

Undoubtedly, the global downward trend in beef consumption per capita will continue in the near and even long term, Yushin continues. “In order for people to eat more beef, we need higher economic growth, higher incomes in poor and developing countries, because consumption in rich countries is already high,” he adds. However, the expert continues, and there it is reduced both for economic reasons and because of the desire to diversify the diet.

Also, according to Yushin, the undisguised and purposeful discrediting of animal husbandry as an industry that allegedly negatively affects climate change is bearing fruit. And in Brazil, Argentina and other countries in South America, where beef is an important part of the meat basket, the decline in consumption is due to high prices. “Inflation, crisis phenomena, inevitably lead to the fact that people switch to other types of meat. But they have a very high consumption of beef, so here, in terms of food quality, one can hardly say that it has deteriorated. However, the economic factor is playing an increasingly important role,” Yushin commented to Agroinvestor. In addition, he recalls, resources for beef production are also becoming more expensive, especially land, which needs a lot, and there are also limitations in water resources.

Russia has great opportunities to increase beef production both for domestic consumption and for the world market, Yushin is sure. “Still, the world will need more beef. The stagnation in world production, which we have seen over the past seven years, is leading to higher prices, but there are more people, and demand is generally growing, but supply is not increasing, ”he emphasizes. Here Russia could play a very important role, as it is one of the few countries that can contribute to supply growth. “Over this period, we have added almost 7%, in the world - 0.8%,” adds Yushin.

But, according to him, calls are often heard in Russia that beef should be cheap, although it should not be cheap, but profitable. “Investing in this sector, even at today’s rates and preferential loans, is still a risky business, but given that, according to UN FAO forecasts, by 2040 the planet will need 10 million tons more beef, of course, Russia already needs make efforts to create long-term profitability and attract numerous investors, relying on small and medium-sized farms and their cooperation with large fattening enterprises and processors,” says Yushin. It is also necessary to create an extensive infrastructure along the entire production vertical. One of the important tasks is the modernization and structural reform of the breeding business.

According to Yushin, the demand for beef will grow not only because of the increase in population. The main factor is Chinahe explains. Now in China there are about 7 kg of beef per person per year, and this is lower than the world average, and almost half as much as in Russia. But the processes taking place in Chinese society leave no doubt that the dynamics of consumption in this country will be positive. “We see how the Chinese are consuming expensive steaks and beef dishes in general with increasing pleasure, so they are trying to develop their own production, and imports of this type of meat amount to millions of tons,” says the head of the NMA. According to him, the new generation is influencing changes in consumer habits in China, and if beef consumption in this country grows by at least 1 kg per capita, then the country will need an additional almost 1.5 million tons of beef per year.

Where to get this volume is a difficult question. In Europe, the pressure on livestock farmers will increase, Brazil's options are limited in terms of land use. Plus, there are more profitable industries for using agricultural land, such as soybean production. In addition, there are not many countries that have sufficient water resources, but Russia has them. Yushin is sure that no matter how cheap poultry and pork are, the demand for beef will increase as the world economy develops too - stagnation cannot be endless. “The increase in income will inevitably lead to an increase in demand for this type of meat. The question is where it will be possible to get it, and which country will earn on it, ”the expert concluded.