USA: Week 42 2021 Cattle Market Overview

The cost of Choice MEAT in the US market increased by $1.58 in a week, the price of Select beef added $2.49. Choice/Select price leverage dropped to $18.71.

Cow slaughter in the US has been high all year, and September was no exception. it is truly unprecedented when wholesale beef prices plummeted in August and yet farmers were forced to sell off their livestock. At the moment, the traditional market system is broken due to the limited number of workers.

This will result in higher beef prices for consumers in the coming years as beef supplies are likely to continue to decline. The total slaughter of cows in September amounted to 551,300 heads, which is 35,000 heads or 6.8% more than a year ago. The slaughter of beef cows amounted to 286.7 thousand heads, which is 20.7 thousand heads more than a year earlier (+ 7.8%). Since the beginning of the year, slaughter of beef cows in the US has increased by 217,200 heads or 9.1% compared to the previous year. An increase in the slaughter of beef cows is noted even despite the fact that the herd of beef cows as of January 1, 2021 was 181 thousand heads less than a year earlier and 533 thousand heads less than two years earlier. The slaughter of dairy cows in September amounted to 264,600 heads, which is 14,200 heads or 5.7% less compared to the previous year. In addition to bringing more cows to market, producers also send heifers for slaughter. Heifer slaughter in January-September was 302,200 heads or 4.3% more than the previous year, despite a smaller calf yield in 2019 and 2020.

Total overseas beef shipments last week were 17,053 tons, about the same as the four-week average and just 4% lower than a year ago. Sales were lower across the board. Sales to CHINA were down 58% from the four-week average, while sales to SOUTH KOREA were down 68%.

US retail meat prices continued to rise in September, with beef, pork and broiler prices reaching record levels. In September, the retail price of fresh beef reached $7.40 per pound, up 17.8% from last year and a record high. The previous record retail price for beef was set in June 2020 at $7.38 per pound.

Also released were data on the consumer price index (CPI) for September, which rose by 5.4% compared to 2020. The meat index rose by 12.6% compared to last year. In the second quarter, demand indices showed an increase in beef and pork. The rise in wholesale prices during the summer months has begun to dampen consumer enthusiasm at the retail level. The demand index for fresh beef in the third quarter fell from 124 last year to 121 this year. The Pork Demand Index fell significantly in the third quarter from 124 last year (a record) to 100. Record retail price levels are likely to be a drag on demand growth in the near term, although meat demand indices are still showing relatively high levels so far.  

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WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

AVERAGE WEEKLY LIVESTOCK PRICE

average price

10/15/2021

22.10.2021

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

123.85

124

0.4%

Heifers (live weight)

123.84

124.29

0.4%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

195.73

195.83

0.1%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

195.62

195.99

0.2%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

23.10.2021

A week earlier

A year ago

Growth per week,%

Growth per year,%

Slaughter volume

661 000

646 000

645 000

2.3%

2.5%

Live weight

1375

1 370

1 388

0.4%

-0.9%

slaughter weight

832

830

844

0.24%

-1.4%

Beef production (million pounds)

548.9

535.1

543.3

2.6%

1.0%

CME, livestock futures

Week 41

Week 41

Growth per week,%

October

125.98

124.10

-1.5%

December

130.98

128.33

-2.0%

February

135.35

133.50

-1.4%

CME, fattening cattle futures

October

157.58

155.43

-1.4%

November

161.43

156.90

-2.8%

January

161.53

157.33

-2.6%