The shashlik set has increased in price by 25% in May, and then meat prices will skyrocket even more

The rise in the price of lamb is due to several factors. Firstly, RUSSIA is experiencing stagnation in the production of this type of MEAT, while demand for it is growing. Currently, Russia produces about 215 thousand tons of lamb, with a total sheep population of about 20 million. Let's compare: Russia produced almost 1.7 million tons of beef last year, and a fantastic 4.5 million tons of pork.

But still, chicken is eaten the most in Russia: annual production has exceeded 5 million tons, which has become a historical record. That is why chicken is now the cheapest meat . At the same time, with lamb, everything is exactly the opposite: the meat remains a niche product (only 0.2% of the total meat market in Russia).

Since the beginning of this year, lamb has already risen in price by almost 130 rubles (by 17%), and beef by 30 rubles (plus 6%), MSK1.RU calculated based on Rosstat data.

The rise in meat prices has naturally affected the prices of shashlik, which Russians traditionally grill during the May holidays. According to analysts at the OFD Platforma company, the average bill for a barbecue set has increased by 11% this season compared to last year: ready-to-grill meat has increased in price by 17%, while the cost of skewers and barbecue grills has increased by 17% and 10%, respectively.

— There are several reasons for the rise in food prices, said  Olga Borisova, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.  — Back in 2022, there was a breakdown in business ties between meat supply companies. The rise in the DOLLAR and euro exchange rate, problems for Russian producers with additives and feed, and the increase in labor costs also had an impact. The reduction in the number of small livestock farms also had an impact.

Moreover, the expert notes not only macroeconomic, but also marketing reasons for the rise in meat prices: by the weekend, characterized by increased demand, large supermarkets remove promotional discounts on such goods (fish and meat).

The founder of the Academy of Business and Strategic Marketing, Yulia Korchagina-Ozcan,  notes that the rise in prices for meat and MILK as basic products is reflected in many other product categories. The expert predicts that there will be two waves of price increases this year. The first is already underway (this is the traditional seasonal increase in prices by the beginning of summer by 18-28%), and the second will be in October-November.

“ Lamb will become more expensive by 28–45%, beef by 30–40%, chicken by 15–25%,” predicts Korchagina-Ozcan.

Not only meat is becoming more expensive, but alsofish , notes  associate professor Olga Borisova in a conversation . Red fish shashlik in restaurants has increased by 7% (by the way, the least in comparison with meat shashlik). And this is despite the fact that trout and salmon themselves have increased in price by 10%.

According to Borisova, everything in the "shashlik set" is becoming more expensive. Spices have become more expensive due to the growth of the dollar and euro exchange rate against the ruble.

— The price of spices increased significantly by a third at the beginning of 2023 and has not decreased to this day, — says Borisova. — The price increase also affected the vegetable set for shashlik (onions, potatoes , peppers, tomatoes ). On average, they increased in price by 10%.

Associate Professor of the Financial University Dmitry Morkovkin  says that against the backdrop of the growing popularity of grilled vegetables, tomatoes, fresh mushrooms and greens have become more expensive - within the range of 12% to 25%. At the same time, average prices for potatoes have decreased by 14% over the year.

So, depending on the base meat or fish chosen, the increase in the cost of self-cooked shashlik ranged from 6% (fish) to 25% (chicken).

In general, the barbecue season will end, but prices will not go down - this is a fact. And it is clear that it is impossible to stop the rise in meat prices. Although you can try to follow Turkey as an example: here, in order to stop the rise in the price of chicken (and the price of meat has doubled), they simply banned its EXPORT . Some Russian experts also tried to explain the rise in lamb prices by the fact that it is allegedly being exported too actively to Iran. But the Russian Ministry of Agriculture resolutely denied this: they say it is not only about exports. Well, yes, all products in Russia are becoming more expensive. An economic paradox: harvests and milk yields are higher - and so are prices.