Beef will rise in price even more for the New Year

According to them, in addition to the current reasons for rising prices, there are also deeper ones, without overcoming which the numbers on price tags will continue to change upward over the course of months and even years. 

“The livestock is declining, dependence on imports is growing”

According to Rosstat estimates, in September 2023 (more recent data has not yet been uploaded to the agency’s website), bone-in beef cost an average of 506 rubles per kilogram, and boneless beef cost 683 rubles. Moreover, in September 2022, for the first one you had to pay about 475 rubles, and for the second - 657. it looks uncritical, however, as market participants themselves note, this is the average temperature in the hospital, because beef actually varies.

Much more clear in this regard are prices in stores for specific types of MEAT. So, in November last year, the neck part went for an average of 680 rubles per kilogram. Today - 729 each. The tongue cost 749 rubles, but now costs 899. Steaks have risen in price by an average of 40 rubles, and so on. And, apparently, there is no end in sight.

According to the general DIRECTOR of the National Union of Beef Producers, Roman Kostyuk, meat from cows and bulls has always been an expensive product. Primarily due to difficulties in production. If it takes an average of 28-30 days to raise a broiler, explained Roman Kostyuk, and a piglet becomes suitable for fattening after about six months, then a calf takes at least two years.

“There are other problems,” the expert noted. — For example, our production has been steadily declining for at least ten years. Moreover, it is falling physically - the number of cattle is declining . Since the beginning of the 2010s, there has not been a single year when it increased or at least remained at the same level.”

There are many reasons for this, according to Roman Kostyuk: from the rapid extinction of small and medium-sized enterprises to the inverted ratio of dairy and meat production: in RUSSIA there are now six dairy cows per one beef cow, while in the rest of the world there are from three to five meat.

“Now we have come to the conclusion that beef production is the only industry that has not been able to close or at least seriously reduce the need for imports,” the publication’s interlocutor stated. “We still import from 280 to 320 thousand tons of imported beef per year, which is at least 20 percent of total production. For comparison: our own, domestic production accounts for only 18 percent. The rest of the meat that ends up on the shelves is, in fact, waste from the dairy sector, which is also today aimed at reducing the number of animals and increasing productivity.”

“There are no grounds for an optimistic forecast”

The conclusion from all this, Roman Kostyuk concluded, is simple and disappointing: beef will continue to rise in price. By the end of the year, its value will increase by at least the inflation rate, that is, by 7-10 percent. Plus the traditional pre-holiday price rise, plus an increase in costs, which is completely unpredictable and can vary greatly from region to region. In a word, Russians , of course, will not be left without meat on New Year’s Eve, but it’s better to start saving up to buy it for the New Year’s table now.

Chairman of the Russian Consumer Union Pyotr Shelishch agreed that beef will only become more expensive, noting, however, that the rate of price growth cannot be called prohibitive.

“The price of beef has not increased that much: according to Rosstat, since the beginning of the year, it has only increased by 5.9 percent,” the expert noted in an interview with Parliamentary Gazeta. —  Pork rose in price by 14.4 percent, and chicken meat by 29.7 percent. The explanation is simple: those for whom beef is too expensive can switch to pork, and if pork is too expensive, they can switch to chicken. But they will buy chicken as long as it remains the cheapest type of meat.”

At the same time, Peter Shelishch clarified, the producers themselves are not at all trying to make money from the common people - they just also need to somehow stay afloat.

“Their costs have also increased significantly due to the exchange rate, credit rates, transport and energy tariffs, prices for feed and veterinary drugs,” the publication’s interlocutor stated. — Since most of these price rise factors are common to producers and sellers of different types of meat, and we see price indices for chicken and pork, there is no reason for an optimistic forecast for beef prices . The main thing the state is doing is restraining the exchange rate of the ruble; let’s hope it will be successful.”