USDA predicts growth in beef and pork production in 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest quarterly forecast for global red MEAT production and trade. Beef and pork production is expected to rise. Trade is forecast to be mixed and heavily affected by the recovery in Chinese manufacturing following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF).

Beef

In its latest forecast, the USDA projects that global beef production could rise 2% year-on-year in 2021 to 61.5 million tonnes.

Production in the US, CANADA and India is expected to recover from processing disruptions due to the pandemic, while Brazilian beef production is expected to increase driven by domestic demand and EXPORT demand, mainly from CHINA .

This increase is expected to outweigh production declines in Australia and the EU. Australia is still rebuilding its cattle herd after severe drought periods, while lower profit margins in the EU will limit production in the region.

Global beef exports are projected to grow by 2% year on year to 11.1 million tonnes. Most of the key exporters, namely Brazil, India and the United States, are expected to increase shipments in 2021. However, shipments from Argentina, Australia and New Zealand will be reduced due to a reduction in the supply of cattle.

Pork

USDA forecasts global pork production could rise 5% year-on-year in 2021 to 101.5 million tonnes.

Production is expected to increase in most major producing countries. However, China is expected to lead the recovery process from the effects of ASF. China's pork production is projected to grow 11% year-on-year in 2021, but will still be 25% below pre-ASF levels due to ongoing outbreaks and poor productivity. High feed prices may also limit growth.

In 2021, global pork exports are forecast to fall 1% year-on-year to 11.5 million tonnes as demand from China slows. Chinese imports are estimated to fall 8% year-on-year in 2021 as pork production recovers, but will still be high compared to last year's levels. This reduction is expected to outweigh stronger demand from other countries, including the Philippines and SOUTH KOREA. Philippine imports could more than double due to changes in import tariffs and quotas following the impact of ASF on domestic production.