Exporting countries worried about Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian meat
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Argentine analyst Victor Tonelli told the Valor Agregado program on Carve radio: “It’s difficult for me to interpret. We’re talking about the world’s leading MEAT exporter, and this is happening at a time when the United States needs to import meat . Brazil has partnerships with leading meat processing plants in the United States . I find it hard to believe that this will happen, but if it does, it’s not good,” he stressed.
According to the consultant, not only will this not create clear opportunities for direct competitors like Uruguay, but it could also affect other markets. “The meat that doesn’t reach the United States will be diverted to countries like Asia, where we compete directly, and Brazil could take a much more aggressive pricing position,” he warned.
The Argentine Case
Another subject of analysis was the rapprochement between Argentine President Javier Milei and the US President. In this regard, Tonelli acknowledged that there are rumors about Argentina being able to increase EXPORT volumes without or with minimal duties. "There is a conceptual and ideological affinity, but for now it is just a rumor. I would not bet on it yet."
At the same time, there is a rumor about a possible announcement of the abolition of export duties on Argentine beef at the Palermo fair. "It would be an encouraging sign, but not a radical change," he explained. If this happens, the impact would be moderate, given that a significant part of the export volume comes from cows that are already exempt from duties.
Uruguay
Speaking about the prospects for Uruguay, Tonelli noted the excellent results of beef in the first half of the year, with an average price of $4,845 per tonne, and last week it rose to $5,585, according to the National Meat Institute (INAC). “Uruguay is showing impressive results, even outside the quota, with the price of a bull above $5. The numbers speak for themselves,” he said.
Despite global volatility, the analyst remains optimistic. “We are in an emergency. Global demand is growing faster than supply, and this is driving up prices. In addition, there is a structural revaluation of beef compared to plant proteins. The next market will be better than the last one,” he said.