US Broiler Market Outlook for Week 13, March 31, 2025

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has cut its forecast for overall food price inflation in 2025, despite sharply increasing its forecast for egg prices due to the ongoing impact of bird flu.

The USDA now expects food prices to rise 3.2% in 2025, slightly below its February forecast of 3.4%. Grocery prices are projected to rise 2.7%, down from its previous estimate of 3.3%. In contrast, restaurant prices (eating out) are expected to rise 3.7%, down from its February forecast of 3.4%.

Egg prices have skyrocketed amid the avian flu outbreak. The most dramatic change occurred in the egg forecast: the USDA now projects a record 57.6% increase in 2025—a sharp increase from the 41.1% forecast in February and well above the 8.5% increase seen in 2024. Retail egg prices rose 12.5% ​​in February 2025 alone, following double-digit increases in January and December. The USDA attributes the price volatility to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which affected approximately 30 million commercial laying hens in early 2025. Although the number of cases declined in March, the USDA notes that retail prices tend to lag changes in wholesale prices, which have recently declined.

Indonesia has announced its willingness to EXPORT up to 1.6 million eggs per month to the United States, seeking to alleviate the country's ongoing egg shortage caused by the avian flu outbreak. With a surplus of domestic production, Indonesia views this as a strategic opportunity to support global markets. "The shortage of supplies in other countries could become an export opportunity for us. One of our export plans is to the United States," said Arief Kahyono, a spokesman for Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture.

This plan is consistent with broader U.S. efforts to secure egg imports, including current supplies from Turkey, with a delivery of approximately 15,000 tonnes (equivalent to approximately 33 million pounds) scheduled for July 2025. As U.S. egg prices remain volatile, Indonesian imports could help stabilize the market and improve supplies for American consumers.

 Dynamics of prices and sales volumes of broilers Average weighted price of broilers by region

Region

Average price, cents/pound

Sales volume (thousand pounds)

Week 12

Week 13

Weekly growth,%

Week 12

Week 13

Weekly growth,%

Oriental

130.12

131.67

1.2%

4,654

4,679

0.5%

Central

125.84

126.80

0.8%

2,905

2,792

-3.9%

West

145.48

146.87

1.0%

3 115

3,075

-1.3%

Chicken cutting price dynamics

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