Rabobank: Global pork production estimates for the second quarter of 2024

Herd declines are slowing as the industry sees an improving supply-demand balance. After several months of decline, sow numbers in key regions are beginning to stabilize. With breeding stock growth unlikely to resume until late 2024 or early 2025, pork supplies will remain tight in the coming months.

Productivity growth also stimulates production. Improved herd HEALTH in the US , CANADA and CHINA is helping to stabilize production by increasing the availability of pigs.

Lower feed costs offset rising other costs and allowed the industry to return to profitability. Increased global supplies of grains and oilseeds have reduced feed costs for most producers. Despite early-season concerns, a good harvest in South America has replenished supplies, putting further pressure on prices . Growing conditions remain a focus as the Northern Hemisphere enters the 2024 spring planting season.

Pork continues to be positioned as a cheaper protein option for consumers, especially as beef prices continue to rise . While value products continue to see strong growth and there is a trend toward more frozen foods, the consumer shift to cooking at home continues to benefit retail pork sales. As inflation peaks, there should be a gradual recovery in value-added and processed MEAT sales.