Experts: the end of Lent will not lead to a sharp increase in demand for meat

So far, there is an increase in demand only for individual cuts, which are most in demand for the barbecue season.

According to VTsIOM, only 13% of the country’s residents observed Great Lent in 2021, so you should not expect an explosive growth in demand for MEAT after it ends on May 2. According to the HEAD of the National Meat Association, Sergei Yushin, the fasting factor certainly affects demand and prices, but its influence cannot be called strong. Demand for meat will continue to grow in the usual pattern, as people cannot multiply their consumption, besides, the weather in central RUSSIA is not conducive to an active barbecue season, and people's incomes are not growing, he commented.

Moreover, Yushin continues, this year is different from the previous ones: with a high demand for meat and meat products, it has not yet been possible to close the gap in broiler production. In addition, the industry has not yet reached the previously projected rate of growth in pork production after several major outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in late 2020, which killed about 600,000 pigs. These factors are now influencing the increase in the cost of meat.

“So we do not expect an explosive growth in demand with the end of Lent,” Yushin added. According to him, there is only an increase in demand for individual cuts that are most in demand during the barbecue season - pork neck, loin, red poultry meat, etc. However, everything depends on taste preferences and the region of consumption, he specified.

Sergey Lakhtyukhov, General DIRECTOR of the National Union of Poultry Breeders

The main reasons for the sharp rise in prices for poultry meat at the beginning of the year were the increase in production costs and the decline in production volumes. Nevertheless, approximately since the beginning of April, we have recorded a downward trend in selling prices. With the end of Lent and the celebration of Easter, which coincided with the beginning of the long May holidays and the barbecue season, we expect this trend to change and prices to rise slightly. But it will not be rapid and is predicted in line with the trends of past years.

Albert Davleev, President of Agrifood Strategies, said that the demand for chicken and turkey during the May holidays will be higher than usual, which will affect prices - they will go up. After the end of the weekend, prices will stabilize and decline slightly, he added. 

This year, the demand for pork during Lent has traditionally decreased, but at the same time it was 5-10% higher than traditional indicators, said Yury Kovalev, Director General of the National Union of Pig Breeders. According to him, this was due, firstly, to high prices for poultry meat and its shortage, and secondly, to the limited opportunities for outbound tourism in the spring. After the end of the fast, demand should rise, especially if the weather is fine. In addition, the long May holidays and then the summer holidays also contribute to the increase in demand.

After a slight increase in meat prices by the May holidays, by the end of the long weekend, they can again return to their previous values, says Konstantin Korneev, Executive Director of Rincon Management. In general, according to him, May should be an active month in terms of meat consumption and a certain increase in its price, but it will not be dramatic, since meat prices are already quite high.

In May, wholesale pork prices may rise slightly, Kovalev believes. But retail dampens these increases, as, for example, when demand and wholesale prices fall, but retail prices do not. “In general, we expect that average prices will be within the limits of food inflation,” Kovalev commented. He also added that at the end of the year, the union expects an increase in pork consumption by 1.5-2% compared to 2020.

The most popular meat for the barbecue season is pork. Despite rising prices, chicken is also traditionally in demand. In addition, for several years in a row, there has been a stable upward trend in demand for turkey for barbecue.

In Russia, meat consumption is almost equal to its production. The increase in production capacity leads to lower prices, and, consequently, an increase in consumption, says Korneev. Pork, turkey and broiler output are expected to rise this year, he says. According to Davleev, turkey production in 2021 should increase by 30-70 thousand tons (according to various estimates, on average - plus 50 thousand tons) compared to 330 thousand tons in 2020, if there is no force majors like bird flu. Chicken production should increase by 3% by the end of the year.

Despite projected increases in production, Yushin does not expect meat consumption to increase this year for several reasons. First, it is already at a fairly high level. Secondly, disposable incomes of the population are not growing, and thirdly, poultry production needs to be restored: at best, it will be possible to reach the last year’s figure only by the end of 2021. At the same time, pork production should increase by 3.5-4% (150-170 thousand tons in slaughter weight), but part of this volume will be exported. “We will be happy if the consumption of meat and meat products remains at the level of last year, but for this it is necessary to achieve an early restoration of broiler production,” he concluded.