Domestic grain consumption is not increasing. Compound feed production declined amid reduced consumption and livestock production

Domestic grain consumption is not growing and remains at the level of last year - about 80 million tons per year, and the likelihood of its increase, as well as the expansion of MEAT production, is extremely low. Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical company ProZerno, spoke about this during the Russian Meat & Feed Industry conference of Agroinvestor. Feed production over the past two months has been lower than in previous periods. The consumption of food grains is also not growing: the production of cereals is stagnating, and FLOUR is declining, he noted.

Livestock breeders should have been the main beneficiaries of the introduction of EXPORT duties, and it would be logical if they answered them with an increase in grain consumption and, accordingly, an increase in livestock, Petrichenko argues, because they receive grain at lower prices than competitors in Ukraine and Brazil. . However, at the moment, the number of poultry has fallen, and the growth rate of the number of pigs in agricultural enterprises has slowed down, he noted. At the same time, due to export restrictions, crop production was in a “very disadvantaged position” compared to other sub-sectors of the agro-industrial complex, Petrichenko emphasized.

To date, export grain prices are declining much faster than domestic ones. This is due to the fact that the export rates in the first half of the current season, due to the expectation of duties, were significantly higher than in all previous ones - even compared to the record 2017/18 season. Moreover, record shipments were observed not only for wheat, but also for barley. As a result, grain stocks in April this year are at the level of May of previous years, respectively, and prices for it do not fall, the HEAD of ProZern explained. Export rates until the end of the season, according to him, will not exceed 1-1.5 million tons per month, respectively, the situation with low stocks will smooth out. In general, about 46.4 million tons of grain can be supplied to foreign markets this season, while earlier the export potential was estimated at 50.9 million tons, Petrichenko added.

“Do not forget about the exchange rate - the value of the DOLLAR over the past year has grown from 65 rubles. up to 77 rubles Accordingly, grain prices increased in ruble terms,” Petrichenko noted. At the same time, according to him, due to the duty, processors set very low base prices, which is extremely painful for grain producers.