China White Broiler Market Overview in H1 2022 and H2 Forecast

From January to May 2022, CHINA imported 551,700 tons of chicken products nationwide, down 6.79% from the previous year. Total imports from January to May 2017-2021 amounted to 174,900 tons, 197,000 tons, 277,200 tons, 521,800 tons and 591,900 tons, respectively.

This year, the total volume of imports from January to May first shows a downward trend. Following the outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in the United States in March, SOUTH KOREA, Mexico, Singapore and other countries imposed some restrictions on the import of American chicken MEAT. Meanwhile, the covid-19 epidemic has hampered the import of cold chain products. Amid overcapacity for processing domestic broilers, Chinese chicken imports showed a slight year-on-year decline.

After the pandemic, consumption in the catering sector has increased over the past two years. The sector's revenue in the second half of the year was significantly higher than in the first half. The maximum monthly and quarterly revenues were recorded in the fourth quarter.

As China implements the new CORONAVIRUS prevention and mobility control policy and the economic recovery, demand from the catering industry is improving and consumption of poultry meat is growing.

At present, avian influenza still has an impact on the international broiler market, and the prevention and control of epidemics in the domestic imported food cold chain sector is still unsatisfactory. Chinese breeding technology also contributes to the antitrust development of the broiler industry. Thus, the volume of imports may continue to decline in the second half of the year.

 Price forecast for the domestic market in the second half of 2022

According to preliminary estimates, chicken prices will show a downward trend in the second half of July due to the traditionally weak consumption season, a limited incentive effect of rising prices for live pigs and unexpectedly high chicken prices in June.

In August, the price is expected to be stable. In September, with the support of group food consumption during the school season, the price of chicken meat may exceed the high price point of the first half of this year.

 Supply and demand may be stable in the fourth quarter, when the price in general will be high. An increase in the price of feed leads to an increase in breeding costs. In addition, consumption is expected to improve in the second half of 2022, so the price of chicken may fluctuate upwards.