Abnormally high mortality in half a year in Belarus. How we look against the background of other countries and what it can be

Recently, data on mortality in Belarus appeared in the UN system. It turned out that in June 2020, the number of deaths by 3753 cases exceeded last year's figures for the same month. Mortality in the first half of this year broke a five-year record. Neither the Ministry of Health nor Belstat has yet clarified what these mortality data are connected with, moreover, Belstat promised to publish data for six months back in July, but they are still not publicly available.

It follows from the UN statistics that in the second quarter, which was the peak of the spread of COVID-19 , almost 35.9 thousand people died in Belarus. This is 5.6 thousand people more than a year earlier. From 2015 to 2017, their number in the second quarter did not reach 30,000. It is important to emphasize that the UN data does not indicate the cause of death, so it is not yet possible to understand what the Belarusians died from.

According to official data, as of September 13, 74,173 cases of COVID-19 have been registered in Belarus since the beginning of the pandemic, that is, since the end of February. During all this time, according to the same information, 750 patients died.

Belstat published data on deaths for this year only for January-March, that is, the first quarter. During this period, a total of 31,039 people died for various reasons, in the past - 32,229. However, this statistics in the context of the coronavirus does not tell us anything, because the first death from it was recorded on March 31. It was 75-year-old Honored Artist of Belarus, actor of the Kolas Theater Viktor Dashkevich.

On April 7, at a meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, it was announced that the total mortality in Belarus for the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2019, decreased by 4%, and from pneumonia - by 9%. 254 people died from pneumonia in the first three months of this year.

More relevant data for six months, as Belstat explained back in June, were planned to be published around July. We have not found this information in the public domain. We also failed to get through to Belstat specialists to clarify when these data will be published.

Let's take a closer look at the mortality data that countries submit to the UN. According to them, in June in Belarus, the mortality rate increased sharply. During the month, 13,016 people died, and in June 2019, for example, 9,263 people. On average, in June 2011-2019, 9576 people died in Belarus, and in June 2020 - 3440 more.

Note that the UN database is replenished unevenly: some countries provide information earlier, others later. In this sense, Belarus approaches the issue responsibly: the data on our country is fresh. Most countries in this sense lag behind us. For example, countries affected by the coronavirus - the United States , Italy, Spain, France, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and  Russia  - have not yet updated their statistics.

However, we were able to find several examples of a similarly anomalous increase in the number of deaths in a particular month. There was a similar surge in April in the Netherlands and Sweden. Both countries are comparable to Belarus in terms of population (9.5 million in our country, 10.1 million in Sweden, 17.1 million in the Netherlands) and in the number of registered cases of COVID-19 (slightly more than 74 thousand in our country; 86.5 thousands in Sweden, 82 thousand in the Netherlands).

The surge in deaths in the Netherlands and Sweden could well be explained by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Netherlands, there was a peak in new cases in April, which is why there was such a big spike. In Sweden, the peak was in June, but data for this month is not yet available.

What happened in Belarus in terms of mortality in six months of 2020? Neither the Ministry of Health nor Belstat has clarified this point yet. The Belarusian bureau of the World Health Organization noted that they "are in contact with Belarusian specialists in order to obtain more detailed information on the emerging mortality data and understand the possible causes of the observed excess mortality."

“Usually, such changes can be associated with outbreaks of infectious diseases or other acute public health problems. This year, a similar increase in overall mortality was observed in many countries around the world and was directly or indirectly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, due to national differences in testing strategies and approaches to reporting COVID-19 as a cause of death, official COVID-19 death rates in different countries can vary significantly. And in this situation, total mortality can give a better idea of ​​the scale of the consequences of the epidemic. For a more complete understanding of the causes of excess mortality and its likely connection with the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, further analysis of the statistical data provided by age, gender, geography, causes of death,

Could the abnormally high six-month mortality rate in Belarus be related to COVID-19? We asked this question to an infectious disease specialist in one of the Minsk polyclinics. According to the specialist, in addition to real deaths from COVID-19, you need to understand that there are still deaths that the pandemic has affected: for example, a person missed a planned hospitalization, did not see a doctor due to other diseases for fear of contracting a coronavirus.

- The recently released report on the number of deaths contains figures that again make us wary of the official statistics of the Ministry of Health regarding deaths from COVID-19. Unfortunately, the report does not provide data on the causes of death, but it can be assumed that this additional mortality is directly or indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is no secret that data on mortality from a new coronavirus infection cannot be compared from country to country, because countries have different recording methods and testing approaches. The mortality data announced by the official Ministry of Health (today it is about 1%) is slightly different from 3.25% globally. And if we add to those who died directly from COVID-19 those who missed a planned surgical intervention, delayed hospitalization for fear of contracting a coronavirus in the hospital, did not receive a vaccination on time and so on, the figure will be higher. Do not forget about the exacerbation of neurotic and suicidal tendencies against the background of "coronapsychosis". Unfortunately, the available UN resources do not have data on deaths for a number of other countries. I would very much like to conduct a comparative analysis, in particular with neighboring states that introduced quarantine. However, it is safe to say that the pandemic has globally affected all areas of our lives, led to a decrease in population, deterioration in economic indicators, an increase in unemployment and a deterioration in the quality of education around the world, says the infectious disease specialist. available UN resources lack data on deaths for a number of other countries. I would very much like to conduct a comparative analysis, in particular with neighboring states that introduced quarantine. However, it is safe to say that the pandemic has globally affected all areas of our lives, led to a decrease in population, deterioration in economic indicators, an increase in unemployment and a deterioration in the quality of education around the world, says the infectious disease specialist. available UN resources lack data on deaths for a number of other countries. I would very much like to conduct a comparative analysis, in particular with neighboring states that introduced quarantine. However, it is safe to say that the pandemic has globally affected all areas of our lives, led to a decrease in population, deterioration in economic indicators, an increase in unemployment and a deterioration in the quality of education around the world, says the infectious disease specialist.