US: Beef imports up 31%, supporting global prices

According to data published by AustralianMEAT and Livestock, in the first half of the year, the United States imported 913,000 tons of meat, up 31% from the same period last year.

And that's not all: The USDA predicts that this year's figure will reach 2.2 million tons, representing 20% ​​of the global market. This is where Argentina's meat processing industry is focusing its attention.

The surge in U.S. imports comes as domestic production has fallen sharply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the cattle herd at 87 million HEAD, down 8% from 2021.

This is reflected in meat production, which is expected to decline 6% in 2025 compared to the same year. Foreign sales are also down: The U.S. Meat EXPORT Federation reported that exports reached 602,000 tons in the first half of the year, compared to 643,000 tons in the same period in 2024. That’s a 6% drop.

In such a scenario, Argentina could benefit significantly, especially after the decline in exports to CHINA , which Rosgan believes could continue to worsen in the coming months due to the entry of Brazil, another strong player, into the market.

But if the outlook does brighten in the final stretch of the year, it will be because competition from the United States is curbing China's bearish sentiment and forcing it to pay more even as it imports less.

If China is unable to lower prices today , it is because the northern giant pays more than $6,000 per ton for industrial meat, significantly higher than the price paid by the Asian giant, which currently fluctuates between $5,200 and $5,500.

In addition to rerouting exports to the United States, as Uruguay has done, months of peak demand from China are approaching as importers stockpile food to meet population growth during the Lunar New Year holiday.

According to a recent Rosgan report by consultant Maria Julia Ayassa, “data released by the General Administration of Customs of China (GASC) confirms that 250,290 tons of beef worth US$1.323 billion entered the country in July, up 16.2% in volume and 29.6% in value compared to the same month in 2024. This is the highest volume of imports this year and 15.5% higher than the previous month.”

Meanwhile, the organization adds: “Year-to-date through July, beef imports totaled about 1.55 million tonnes worth US$7.973 billion, down 6.1% in volume and up 1% in value due to a 3.6% increase in import prices per tonne.”