Overview of global beef and lamb markets

According to the latest USDA forecast , global beef production in 2023 will reach 59.6 million tons (+0.4% compared to 2022), which is 1% higher than the April forecast . Key players have changed slightly as production is expected to rise in Argentina, the US and New Zealand. A drought in Argentina has reduced available forage, causing further herd elimination, and beef production is up 6% from the previous USDA forecast.

Compared to previous estimates, the July forecast assumes that US beef production will rise by 1% due to increased slaughter of cows and increased movement of livestock to feedlots. Beef production in New Zealand is up 3% from the April forecast as more calves come from the dairy sector for beef production.

In terms of international trade, exports were unchanged from the previous forecast at 12.1 million tons. However, EXPORT forecasts have been revised upwards for New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and Brazil. Demand from CHINA will increase exports from South America, while Australia will benefit from exports to Japan and SOUTH KOREA. Increased demand for beef processing in the US will boost exports from Australia and New Zealand.

Export forecasts for the EU , the UK and Mexico have fallen as falling demand from the EU cuts UK exports, lower EU production reduces its export capacity and a difficult exchange rate hampers exports from Mexico.

Beef production in the EU continues to decline, with production expected to fall by 1.8% in 2023. Despite the decline in beef supplies, prices have declined since January due to problems with consumer demand. Globally, however, prices in the EU are relatively stable, which affects the competitiveness of exports to other markets. As a result, EU exports are projected to fall by 5% in 2023.

Inflation and the cost of living continue to take a toll on consumption as consumers cut back on their beef purchases. Little has changed from the previous forecast, which saw consumption fall 1.7% from 2022 levels.

Globally, FAO notes that lamb (including goat) MEAT production is projected to reach 17 million tonnes in 2023, up 1% from 2022.

Production growth is expected in Australia, China, Turkey and the UK as production falls in the EU. New Zealand production is forecast to remain relatively stable as higher carcass weights almost offset lower slaughter, while Australian production is expected to pick up due to favorable conditions. Stronger demand and higher prices in China and Turkey during 2023 could also boost production in those countries. it is also expected that the growth of the breeding herd will increase production in the UK.

Mutton exports are forecast to increase by 5.2% to 1.1 million tons as shipments from Australia and New Zealand to Asia rise. Australia's exports are up 9% to 521,000 tons as production rises and the opportunities provided by free trade agreements expand. New Zealand's exports will rise to the EU and China due to lower production and rising demand, respectively.

Mutton production in the EU has benefited from seasonal religious holidays such as Eid al-Adha and Easter in the spring, but is forecast to fall 1.5% overall as herd size shrinks. Lower domestic production combined with strong international price competition could see exports fall by 5% and imports could rise by 12% as shipments from the UK and New Zealand rise.

Compared to beef, lamb consumption is likely to be the least affected by inflationary pressures, given the importance of this product in religious and cultural contexts, and is expected to grow by 1.4% per capita in 2023.