The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the export of agricultural products in 2023 at $43.5 billion

According to her, the potential for grain supplies to foreign markets this year is estimated at approximately 70 million tons. Lut emphasized that Russia’s main trading partners are the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. In 2022, exports of agricultural products, according to the Federal Customs Service, amounted to $41.3 billion. 

Regarding the price situation on the market, Lut noted that “in any market, including grain, the internal cost of production is increasing.” “Over the past two years, the cost of internal logistics has increased significantly. External logistics are quite volatile and always affect the final price, so it is necessary to take into account all these factors when determining the final cost of grain,” explained the deputy minister. However, she believes that Russian grain products remain one of the most affordable in terms of price and quality ratio.

Lut also noted that  the Ministry of Agriculture is now  considering the possibility of providing guarantees to key partners to ensure the necessary volumes of grain crops to maintain food security in countries. “The issue of price is a matter of agreement, which can be resolved during our discussions. However, we believe that guarantees are of primary importance. The state can provide such guarantees, and we urge our partners and colleagues to follow this path,” the deputy minister emphasized.

Lut named settlement issues as the main risks in foreign trade. “We are constantly faced with situations related to the low share of payments in national currencies, which amounts to up to 10% of our exports of grain products,” she noted. Lut recalled that in 2023 the grain harvest in RUSSIA amounted to 147 million tons, including 96 million tons of wheat (including new regions). “The actual production amounted to about 12.3% of world wheat production and 15% of world barley production. These two cultures are core to us,” she added.

Deputy HEAD of the Agroexport center under the Ministry of Agriculture, Andrei Kucherov, said in early February that in 2023, exports of agricultural products exceeded $46 billion. According to him, in 2022, Russia was in 17th place in the world ranking of agricultural exporters. Vice President, Head of the Analytical Department of Gazprombank Daria Snitko believes that Lut’s assessment of agricultural exports is more correct, since it is more recent and takes into account all data on foreign trade activities for 2023.

Snitko noted that the structure of exports is dominated by grains - more than a third, and if we add products from the oil and fat industry and the fishing industry, this will amount to more than ¾ of exports. The increase in the EXPORT of grain and vegetable oils is due to the high harvest in the country for two years in a row and the development of new supply directions, Snitko commented. The main buyers of Russian food are Turkey , Kazakhstan , CHINA , and Egypt . In 2023, Russia occupied 25% of the world wheat market and a third of the sunflower oil market. According to Snitko, the price environment will make it possible to maintain the industry’s export revenues in 2024-2025 at a level of at least $37-39 billion.  

Export estimates exceeding $45 billion were announced by representatives of the government and the Ministry of Agriculture earlier, when information on export volumes in the last months of 2023 was not available. Denis Ternovsky, a research fellow at the Center for Agricultural Policy of the Institute of Economics and Economy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, said that the rate of export growth in January-October made it possible to reach this figure at the end of the year. But in November and December, volumes decreased significantly compared to the comparable months of 2022 - by 13% and 17%, respectively. This happened both under the influence of difficult weather conditions, which made shipments difficult at ports, and due to the high base of last year, when deliveries in the last months of the calendar year compensated for the failure of shipments of a record harvest at the beginning of the season, the expert noted. 

Despite the revision of the estimate of export volumes in 2023, an increase in its value by 4% compared to the previous year is a significant achievement for the industry, since this growth was achieved in the context of a significant decline in prices, Ternovsky is sure. In his opinion, the main factor behind the increase was record harvests of grains and oilseeds, despite the fact that the comparison base included the first half of 2022 with relatively small volumes of shipments. He expects that this year export volumes will be comparable to 2023, and the volumes of grain not exported in the last months of 2023 will be included in the export statistics of 2024. “Exports will also be supported by a record oilseed harvest. At the same time, the price factor will continue to act to reduce the cost of exports. There is still great uncertainty in the forecast for external sales related to the size of the future harvest and prices in the first half of the next season,” the expert concluded.