Take it higher: the rise in food prices can warm up inflation in Russia

С ценами на продовольственном рынке ситуация неоднозначная. По данным Петростата, в июне в Петербурге выросли цены на часть плодоовощной продукции (морковь, картофель, лимоны, яблоки, свёкла, чеснок, апельсины). При этом в среднем плодоовощная продукция подешевела на 2,5%, в том числе помидоры — на 22,9%, лук репчатый — на 15,1%. В Ленобласти в июне плодоовощная продукция подешевела на 0,6%, в том числе помидоры — на 33%, лук репчатый — на 15,1%, огурцы свежие — на 4,4%, при этом в числе подорожавших овощей оказались картофель, морковь, белокочанная капуста.

Сезонный фактор

Эксперты отмечают, что высоким сезоном в сегменте столовых овощей считается период с марта по июнь, в июле цены уже идут вниз. Как поясняет генеральный директор исследовательской компании "Технологии Роста" Тамара Решетникова, в начале лета ещё не было первого сбора урожая сезонных овощей с открытого грунта. Самые ранние овощи начинают собирать только в конце июня в южных регионах. "Каждый июнь происходит повышение цен на овощи борщевого набора, потому что их запасы на складах к маю–июню заканчиваются, а собрать новые не успевают, импортные же аналоги, которые поступают на прилавки в это время, обходятся в закупке дороже", — говорит эксперт.

На ценнике также сказывается повышение тарифов на хранение, поскольку для создания и поддержания необходимого овощам микроклимата требуется большое потребление электричества.

ЦБ РФ отмечает ускорение роста цен на продовольственные товары в июне во всех федеральных округах. На доступность нового урожая местных овощей негативно повлияли погодные условия, а импортируемые овощи дорожали вслед за ослаблением курса рубля. В июле цены на плодоовощную продукцию продолжили расти, лишь на последней неделе Росстат зафиксировал снижение.

Топливо для роста

In addition, a factor affecting prices could be the problem voiced the other day by the Ministry of Agriculture. The department reported that a number of regions of the Russian Federation noted an increase in prices for fuels and lubricants for the agro-industrial complex. According to experts, the growth in stock prices for fuel and lubricants in recent months is associated with expectations of a reduction in damping payments to oil refiners, announced by the government since September of this year," Olga Belenkaya, HEAD of the macroeconomic analysis department at FG Finam, draws attention.

The expert explains that prices for fruits and vegetables are highly volatile. Nevertheless, in annual terms, it has risen in price quite significantly: according to the Ministry of Economic Development, as of July 31, by 13% yoy, which is significantly higher than the general food annual inflation (2.3% yoy).

Squirrels get closer

In addition to vegetables, the rise in prices for MEAT deserves attention . According to the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), in June the price per kilogram of chilled or frozen chicken was 193.48 rubles in the Russian Federation, which is higher than in April 2022, when the previous record was set - 190.85 rubles per kg.

Lyubov Savkina, general DIRECTOR of the IMIT information and analytical agency, told DP that since the beginning of 2023, the wholesale price of a broiler chicken carcass has already increased by 40%. As of July 31, 2023, a carcass of a Central Bank (GOST) cost 192 rubles per kg, which is 6% more than a week earlier, and for the month the price increase has already amounted to 13%. If you look at the prices of a carcass of a broiler chicken last year in August, then the cost increased by 34% over the year. Later, the chicken "pulled" the pork. Half carcasses have increased in price by 30% since the beginning of the year, as well as pigs in live weight. But beef and lamb are more stable, and the increase was only 1% over the same period.

"The price gap between chicken and pork is now only 11%. 25% is the generally accepted world norm. Previously, this price gap was generally about 50%. But since 2022, when chicken meat began to rise in price, it has decreased, and at the beginning of 2023 the price gap between pork and poultry in the wholesale has become 19%,” said Lyubov Savkina.

According to Petrostat, in June in St. Petersburg there was an increase in prices for chilled and frozen chickens - 6.7% compared to May, the average price per kilogram was 183.22 rubles.

In the Leningrad region, chilled and frozen chickens became more expensive by 4% (163.26 rubles / kg). Among the factors influencing prices, the expert calls the growth in demand from buyers. A significant factor in the rise in the price of poultry meat is the increase in the cost of production: the cost of equipment and spare parts is rising, and the wages of employees are growing.

The bird flu situation also played a role. “General inflation has also led to an increase in the price of the food basket, in particular meat. We expect prices to decline. The seasonality of demand should play its role. By the end of August, it will decrease due to a reorientation towards more social needs - preparation for the school season . year, and the bird should gradually lose in price both due to seasonality and due to a decrease in demand due to high prices," Savkina believes.

Analysts at research firm NTech point out that prices for chicken and pork are interrelated: when poultry becomes more expensive, consumer demand shifts towards meat, and vice versa. Leonid Ardalionov, director of analytics at the NTech research company, highlights two powerful factors that affect the prices of meat raw materials, whether it is chicken or pork - feed and epizootics (pandemic diseases of domestic animals and livestock). Now in RUSSIA there is a favorable situation with fodder, there is a lot of grain, the harvests are good. But the epizootic is an unpredictable factor that can make significant adjustments to the situation on the market.

Game ahead of the curve

Judging by the data of Rosstat, in general, inflation in the Russian Federation reached 4.42% in annual terms by the end of July. Compared to June, when this figure was 3.25%, there was a significant jump. As a result, inflation turned out to be higher than the target of 4%, which the Bank of Russia is striving for.

The regulator is taking drastic measures to combat rising consumer prices: on July 21, it increased the key rate by 100 basis points at once, from 7.5 to 8.5% per annum. Of course, it was not the current level of inflation that prompted him to do this, but the possible future. As follows from the poll "infom", conducted monthly by order of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, inflation expectations of the population for the next 12 months in July rose to 11.1% from 10.2% in June.

Expectations, in turn, are fueled by the weakening of the ruble, which has fallen by 2.29-3.86% against the US DOLLAR , the euro and the Chinese yuan in July, and since the beginning of the year - by an average of more than 30%. Looking at the continuation of this trend in August, most analysts predict a 50-100 bps hike in September.

If we talk about food inflation, then this summer we are passing without a seasonal reduction in the price of fruits and vegetables, in connection with which, in July, August and September, an increased level of inflation will be recorded. The share of fruits and vegetables in the inflation calculation basket is 4.2%, respectively, with a 13% increase in prices year on year, we have a contribution of this component to inflation at the level of 0.5%. Other food products rose in price much weaker, therefore, despite a larger share in the calculation of inflation, they made a noticeably smaller contribution - 0.3%. The rise in prices is associated with two main factors: a) the transfer of exchange rate fluctuations into the prices of durable goods, b) changes in consumer preferences due to the reduction of poverty (firstly, demand for various meats increases and decreases for bread and cereals, second, demand for durable goods rises. The Bank of Russia has begun raising the key rate and is likely to continue tightening monetary policy, cooling consumer demand.The government , in turn, continues to support the agricultural sector. In addition, work continues to reduce costs when importing imported goods from a logistical, accounting and administrative point of view.

Valery Vaysberg Director of the Analytical Department of IK "Region"

“The most obvious reason for the rise in prices is the recent appreciation of the currency, this factor in any case will have an impact. The depreciation of the ruble may negatively offset the positive trend associated with seasonality. When a currency changes its price, this can also influence the decision of farmers to send the bulk of the goods for  EXPORT.or to the domestic market. When the currency becomes more expensive, exports become more attractive, which can also affect the rise in prices for the Russian consumer. This scheme works at the level of large agricultural holdings, and their decisions, in turn, affect competition in the domestic market. With an increasing share of exports, small farmers face less competition. As for exchange rates, now, in my opinion, we should not expect an improvement in the situation for the consumer. It is not necessary to expect that the currency will become cheaper, the exchange rate is influenced by the balance of exports and imports. In the last year, Russia's exports to Western countries have sagged, while imports from these countries are recovering. The ratio of supply and demand for the currency has changed in the direction of the currency. And now there are no prerequisites for a change in the opposite direction.

Alexander Skorobogatov, Professor, Department of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics St. Petersburg

“Rise in prices is, first of all, a natural reaction of the markets to the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. According to official data, for the first half of 2023, the volume of cash in the economy (M0 aggregate) increased by 9.6%, the total ruble money supply (M2 aggregate) increased by 5.9%. The dynamics of the same indicators on an annualized basis was also positive and amounted to +27.3% and +25.4%, respectively. The mass of goods did not grow at the same rate over the same periods. Therefore, the imbalance in the dynamics of commodity and money supply is largely leveled out due to inflationary processes. We can also talk about a decrease in the competition of sellers in the market with relatively stable demand, there is also a fact of crop failure, increased logistics costs.