"New Building Prices Are Falling": How High Interest Rates Are Putting Pressure on the Moscow Market

• [00:27] The main factor was not the price movement, but the key rate: it is unlikely to be lower than 12%, and you shouldn’t expect super-profitable mortgages.

• [01:29] The usual mass demand, spurred by preferential mortgages, has gone: there is no reason to expect a surge in buyers, and the reasons for the price increase are questionable.

• [03:29] The shortage of new buildings that developers are talking about is exaggerated; construction volumes are decreasing slightly, and demand is weakened.

• [06:30]Market reality : the price of a new building includes not only the apartment, but also up to 30% of the cost of a "financial product" (preferential mortgage, installment plan), which cannot be resold on the secondary market.

• [09:39] A bias is being formed: new buildings with a prefabricated structure are selling at a higher price, but on the secondary market the price is lower – the investor loses up to 30%, and it is extremely difficult to break even.

• [12:37] Forecast: in 2026, the key rate will be 12-15%, the secondary market is the most honest, and price growth is unlikely there. In new buildings, the market will face a drastic transformation and discounts.

How is the key rate affecting the real estate market, and what is your overall assessment of the situation?
Oleg Repchenko, head of the IRN.ru Real Estate Market Indicators portal

In previous years, we would gather and discuss prices: would they fall or rise? Now, apartment prices have taken a back seat. The interest rate has taken center stage. Everyone is asking questions: will it fall, won't it fall, how much might it fall, and is it possible for it to rise? This has become a key factor, since a significant portion of the market depends on mortgages.

Regarding the interest rate, optimists would like it to be lowered quickly. However, we see that the process is slow. If you recall, a year or two ago in a podcast you asked, "When will we have cheap mortgages?" I replied, "At least not in our lifetime." It seems that this prediction is coming true for a simple reason: there are too many external problems. This isn't our fault, but rather geopolitics and the macroeconomic situation.

What does this mean for the owner of an ordinary apartment in Moscow?

This means the following: super-low rates are unlikely. My thesis is that problems will periodically arise that will force the Central Bank to slow rate cuts, and at some point, a rate hike may be necessary. Overall, my forecast is that the key rate is unlikely to fall below 12%.

Is this a normal level?

I would say it's acceptable. However, many expect more, as they're used to cheap mortgages. Firstly, subsidized mortgages have been widespread for quite a long time. Moreover, during the crisis caused byDuring covid , when the key rate was lowered to 4%, the average market mortgage was around 7%. So, people are expecting mortgages at 6-7-8%. They won't get them. I believe that such mortgages won't happen, because if the key rate is unlikely to fall below 12%, then mortgages will be at 15% and higher. This isThe reality we find ourselves in, and this is probably the main point. Expectations of a rapid rate cut to record levels will not be realized.

On the one hand, this means there's no point in expecting super-favorable terms; it's necessary to find ways to resolve your housing needs here and now. On the other hand, sellers won't see the influx of buyers with cheap mortgages seen in previous years. Therefore, turning to prices, despite inflation and rising costs, there are no fundamental reasons for the significant price increases expected by many sellers, and especially developers.

However, they say that by 2027 there will be a supply shortage, which will push up prices.

What is a supply shortage? Firstly, a significant number of projects are already planned for 2027, 2028, and 2029. I believe the supply shortage is largely another way to create hype. This is because many projects have long cycles. Developers have acquired a large number of sites and launched investment projects that need to be implemented. I believe construction volumes will last for several more years. This isn't a shortage, but a slight reduction in volumes—around 20–30%. Construction will continue, but at a lower rate, and this reduction will occur not now, but in about two years.

On the other hand, demand is declining. Since there won't be super-affordable mortgages, demand will remain limited. Furthermore, there's a serious problem: all the subsidized mortgages, installment plans, and tranche-based schemes that I call "buy today, pay tomorrow."

The first scheme was a subsidized mortgage, where the developer lowers the rate for the first few years. Then installment plans emerged: 10-30% is paid, and the rest is due in a year, two, or three, when the building is completed. The share of such schemes reached 50% or more. If the rate doesn't decrease, or doesn't decrease sufficiently, a significant portion of people expecting to get a cheap loan in a year or two will find that rates haven't changed. Moreover, they may discover that prices haven't increased and they can find options cheaper than they bought. In such a situation, it's more profitable to walk away from the deal. Therefore, I expect a wave of cancellations.

Prices for new builds are currently higher than for existing homes, but it used to be the other way around. What will happen next?

Let me explain. The market has created a surreal atmosphere that distorts the real picture. You read in the media that new buildings are getting more expensive. In reality, prices are falling. You're being misled.

Why is this? Previously, developers simply sold apartments. In recent years, they've been selling apartments plus a financing plan.

And the view from the window...

Нет, подождите. Вид из окна — характеристика квартиры. Если вид хороший, она должна стоить дороже. Я говорю о другом. Представьте «Макдональдс»: вы можете взять бургер, а можете комбо-набор с «Кока-колой» и картофелем фри. Так же и тут: вы покупаете не просто квартиру, а квартиру плюс финансовый продукт.

Этим продуктом может быть семейная ипотека, субсидированная ставка, комбо-ипотека, рассрочка или траншевая схема. Вам говорят: «Покупайте сейчас, потому что условия льготные». Но это занижение ставки включено в цену. Рассрочка не бесплатна — проценты включены в стоимость. Вы покупаете квартиру с дополнительной финансовой нагрузкой.

Далее. Рынок в стагнации, продажи идут тяжело. Чтобы стимулировать спрос, финансовый продукт улучшают: уменьшают первый взнос, увеличивают срок льготной ставки, делают скидки. Это закладывается в стоимость и создает иллюзию роста цены. Но растет не стоимость квартиры, а стоимость финансовой обвязки.

Когда покупатель пытается перепродать такую квартиру, он обнаруживает, что финансовый продукт перепродать невозможно. На вторичке продается только квартира — и ее цена существенно ниже, чем у застройщика.

Эффект «Мерседеса», да?

Да, можно сравнить. Но механизм другой: застройщик продает квартиру плюс финансовый продукт — это дороже на 10–40%. При рыночном росте 2020–2022 годов эта разница компенсировалась. Сейчас рост остановился. И человек, купивший такую новостройку, на вторичке продает ее на 10–30% дешевле, чем купил. Это уничтожает идею инвестиций в новостройки. Это надолго замораживает возможности людей, которым нужна другая квартира, но они не могут выйти из сделки без потерь. Так создается крайне невыгодная для покупателя ситуация: вам продают квартиру по завышенной цене, которую потом невозможно выгодно перепродать. Оправданно это только если вы готовы платить ипотеку долгие годы.

Это надолго?

Фактически навсегда. Получается такое «новое крепостное право».

У вторичного жилья есть шансы?

Продать можно, но с потерями. Например, застройщик продает за 16–18 млн руб., а по переуступке ее готовы купить за 12–13 млн, но и это не всегда происходит. Такой перекос и создан. Думаю, в ближайшие год-два ситуация должна каким-то образом разрешиться.

В конце о прогнозах. Ваш взгляд на 2026 год?

Начнем со ставки. Мой прогноз: в 2026 году ставку, скорее всего, немного снизят, но не сильно. Думаю, она будет в диапазоне 12–15% и вряд ли пойдет ниже, поскольку более серьезное снижение может вновь разогнать инфляцию. Прогноз ЦБ на 2027–2028 годы — 7–8% — я считаю идеалом, который маловероятен. Я могу ошибаться, но полагаю, что ниже 12% ключевая ставка не опустится. Ипотека станет чуть дешевле, но супервыгодной не будет.

The secondary market is the most honest in terms of pricing. Many sellers and buyers determine the market price. There will be no sharp declines or increases here; rather, it's a stagnation. Liquid properties may appreciate by 5-10%, while illiquid ones may depreciate. This is a common situation: an apartment is listed for 50 million, six months later it's 40 million, and still doesn't sell. There are plenty of overpriced options.

As for new construction, the industry is facing a major transformation. "The lower classes can't, the upper classes won't": buyers can't buy at current prices, as they were established during the era of low interest rates; rates are high and will remain so, meaning prices must be lower. But developers are unwilling to lower prices and are taking the stance: "We'd rather go bankrupt than lower prices."

Flexible developers will likely adapt. Substantial discounts will be needed to maintain sales. Economy and comfort classes—the mass-demand segments—are faring best. Business and premium projects, where prices reach a million rubles per square meter, will suffer the most. This is precisely the kind of housing that is currently being built in large quantities. When developers talk about a shortage, they mean a shortage in the economy and comfort classes, not the business and premium segments. There is plenty of supply there, and in some places, it's even increasing.