Virologists estimate the risk of a COVID strain with a mortality rate of 35%

If strains of coronavirus arise that cause higher mortality among those infected, they are unlikely to become dominant, virologist, professor at Moscow State University, Doctor of Biology Alexei Agranovsky told RBC.

This is how he commented on the conclusions of the report of the UK Government Emergency Advisory Group (SAGE). The report said that one of the possible scenarios for the development of coronavirus mutations suggests that the mortality of a new potential strain will be 35%.

“Such scenarios for the development of the epidemic are possible, but not necessary. Highly pathogenic strains, if they arise, are likely to lose in contagiousness (infectiousness) and are unlikely to become dominant,” Agranovsky said.

According to him, the conclusions from the report are "quite obvious" - it is necessary to vaccinate people, work on vaccines and try to prevent the introduction of new strains from abroad.

Director of the HSE Institute for Health Economics Larisa Popovich advised not to take “such apocalyptic forecasts” seriously. “All predictions have a common property not to come true. Vaccination significantly reduces mortality. What about infectivity? In the end, people will easily get sick with coronavirus and this disease will cease to be lethal thanks to vaccination and the formation of collective immunity, ”Popovich told RBC.