US: Demand remains the main issue that will impact the pork market in 2024

Demand from Mexico and strong sales during the holiday season are supporting bone-in pork prices , although they are still below last year's levels (supply effect). In the second half of December, prices usually decrease.

On the supply side, a slight increase is expected. it has been a very loss-making year for manufacturers and there is generally a lag in terms of supply response. The breeding stock as of December 1 is expected to be approximately 1.3-1.5% lower than in the past. So far, productivity growth has compensated for the reduction in breeding stock.

Increased competition from poultry retail and slowing economic activity are problematic from a demand perspective. The post- covid demand surge (2021/2022) has largely disappeared in 2023 and is unlikely to return in 2024 .

Wholesale prices are expected to be higher than in 2023, but projected wholesale prices will not be resilient enough to support production growth.

Despite lower grain prices, profitability is expected to be low and inefficient producers will have to exit the market.

Demand remains the biggest challenge. The obstacles created by Proposition 12 in California and Question 3 in Massachusetts have not gone away and could negatively impact sales in 2024. Pork supplies meeting the above requirements continue to lag behind potential sales.

EXPORT demand is also problematic due to outbreaks of African swine fever in CHINA and Vietnam, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine .

Overall, the outlook for the U.S. pork market in 2024 remains uncertain. Demand will be the main factor determining prices and profitability for producers. Increased supply could put pressure on prices, but export demand and any unexpected animal disease outbreaks could support prices.

Additional factors that could impact the U.S. pork market in 2024:

Weather: Adverse weather conditions could disrupt hog production and increase producer costs;
- Government policies: Changes in government policies, such as changes in trade rules or subsidies, may affect pork prices and producer profitability;
- animal diseases: outbreaks of animal diseases, such as African swine fever or PRRS virus , may affect the production and demand for pork;
- Economic conditions: A slowing global economy could reduce demand for pork and harm prices and producer profitability.