USA: Cattle market overview for the 46th week of 2021

The cost of Choice MEAT in the US market increased by $5.89 in a week, the price of Select beef increased by $5.7. Choice/Select price leverage dropped to $14.58.

In the USDA NASS November report, fattening numbers are very close to a year ago due to larger placements than a year ago and smaller marketing numbers. Sales fell about 5% compared to 2020, in line with daily slaughter rates and roughly in line with last year's average daily marketing figures. Overall, feedlot placements increased by 2.4% with strong growth in feedlot deliveries in Colorado (+6%), Idaho (+10%), Kansas (+1%), Nebraska (+12%) and Texas (+6%) during October.

There are now 11.9 million HEAD of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of more than 1,000 head, and although this is slightly less than a year ago (25,000 heads less), this is still the largest number in seven months of 2021.

Beef exports to CHINA have been on the rise since mid-2020, well ahead of historical levels. In the first three quarters of 2021, the US shipped 394.5 million pounds of beef to China, more than nine times more than in the same period last year.

FAS USDA says that based on available weekly data for October, this month's beef exports are likely to be at about the same level as in September, indicating that shipments to China are continuing. This is positive news for US beef exports and points to strong demand in China, with block beef averaging over $280/cwt during October.

China is likely to continue purchasing beef for Chinese New Year (February 1, 2022) and the 2022 Winter Olympics (February 4-20, 2022). Based on weekly EXPORT and net sales data, beef exports to China are expected to remain strong through the end of the year. This will support overall U.S. beef exports, which have reached a record pace this year.

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  WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

AVERAGE WEEKLY LIVESTOCK PRICE

Sale of livestock, heads

Average weight

average price

11/12/2021

11/19/2021

Growth per week,%

11/12/2021

11/19/2021

Growth,%

11/12/2021

11/19/2021

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

43 254

41 376

-4.3%

1 521

1494

-1.8%

131.4

133

1.3%

Heifers (live weight)

13 290

17 705

33.2%

1 337

1 325

-0.9%

131.4

133

1.4%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

9 679

14 511

49.9%

962

974

1.2%

206.6

210

1.4%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

3 575

4 387

22.7%

850

866

1.9%

207.0

210

1.3%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

46 week

45 week

46 week 2020

Growth per week,%

Growth per year,%

Slaughter volume

677 000

655 000

657 000

3.4%

3.0%

Live weight

1378

1379

1 387

-0.1%

-0.6%

slaughter weight

832

833

839

-0.12%

-0.8%

Beef production (million pounds)

562

544.5

557.7

3.2%

0.8%

CME, Livestock Futures

Week 45

Week 46

Growth per week,%

December

132.13

133.53

1.1%

February

136.10

137.70

1.2%

April

139.90

141.30

1.0%

CME, Fattener Cattle Futures

January

157.73

160.93

2.0%

March

159.18

163.38

2.6%

April

165.88