US: Slaughter hog prices still on the rise

While supply is lower than expected, prices remain high. Last week, the national average carcass price was just over $100 US/100 lbs ($220.5 US/100 kg), and the price of hog primals closed at $117.41 US/100 lbs ($258.89 US/100 kg). Iowa State University estimates that producers are finally able to profit from many farrow-finish operations in the $38 US/head range. A combination of tighter supply, strong domestic demand, fueled by record-high beef prices , and robust exports to Mexico and Asia is supporting the market.

Mexico continues to play a critical role in U.S. pork exports. Throughout 2024 and into 2025, Mexico continues to be the largest buyer of pork from the United States, purchasing more than CHINA , Japan , and South Korea combined. From January to June of this year, exports to Mexico grew 8% compared to the same period last year, and Mexico accounts for more than a third of all U.S. pork exports. Without Mexico's high rate of purchases, spot pork prices would likely be $6-$10 per 100 pounds lower. Thank goodness for Mexico.

National Pork Producers Council

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has an annual budget of approximately $24-$26 million. That's real money . The council's job is to represent the interests of American pork producers in Washington, shape policy, and advocate for the industry's ability to operate and grow. But what do producers really get?

Trade Advocacy: There have been some successes here: Mexico and CANADA remain open for exports, but access to the Chinese market remains uncertain and tied to many political factors.

Regulatory Advocacy: California's Act 12 is in effect; the NPPC spent millions fighting it, but the Supreme COURT ruled against them. The costs of complying with new hog housing requirements are now a reality for producers.

Labor and Workforce: H-2A visa reform and year-round farmworker regulations are stalled in Congress, and human movement is severely restricted.

Foreign Animal Disease Preparedness: African swine fever (ASF) has not yet spread to North America, but how much of this is due to the NPPC versus pure luck and USDA protocols?

Producers must ask themselves: If the USDA can be wrong in its forecasts by millions of pigs, and the NPPC can spend over $25 million annually without making significant progress on some of the most critical issues facing our industry, who is truly accountable for the results? We watched as the NPPC lost the fight for Proposition 12, made little progress on labor law reform, and still lacks stable market access in China. In a year when margins finally turned positive, it's worth asking: Couldn't all those producer dollars be better spent on promotion, market development, and consumer engagement, rather than on lose-lose endeavors?

Editor's note: Jim Long's weekly commentary is the world's most widely read pork industry commentary. A database of 27,654 individual email addresses and several websites gives him a worldwide audience.