The Russian International Affairs Council considered it inappropriate to switch to settlements in national currencies with Brazil

Структура российского экспорта в Бразилию остается недостаточно диверсифицированной, а его рост обеспечивается в основном благодаря конъюнктурным всплескам спроса на энергоносители. К такому выводу пришли авторы доклада Российского совета по международным делам (РСМД), посвященного отношениям России и Бразилии.

В исследовании (есть в распоряжении РБК) отмечается, что экономическое взаимодействие между двумя странами можно охарактеризовать как относительно «самодостаточное» и динамично развивающееся. Объем двусторонней торговли вырос с 1997 по 2023 год более чем в десять раз, до $12,4 млрд. Бразилия стала крупнейшим российским торговым партнером в регионе — ее доля составляет почти 50% от общего российского товарооборота с государствами Латинской Америки, по итогам 2023-го Россия впервые вошла в пятерку крупнейших экспортеров Бразилии.

Однако такой товарооборот «совершенно несопоставим ни с объемами торговли Бразилии с Китаем (больше в 14 раз) или с США (больше в семь раз), ни с торговлей России с Китаем и Индией», отмечают эксперты РСМД. Плюс в двусторонней торговле налицо значительный дисбаланс: бразильский импорт многократно превышает российский. В этих условиях, по заключению экспертов РСМД, переход на расчеты в национальных валютах сейчас нецелесообразен.

Как отмечают авторы, экономическому сближению двух стран способствовала взаимодополняемость научно-технологических потенциалов. Однако на практике до сих пор партнерам не удается реализовать план по переходу от простой торговли к масштабному многопрофильному взаимодействию в области инновационных секторов, инвестиций и макроэкономики. Как констатируют эксперты РСМД, на протяжении большей части постсоветского периода двусторонняя торговля в основном сводилась к «обмену российских удобрений на бразильское мясо». К осени 2024-го Бразилия поставила на российские рынки мясо почти на $270 млн — в полтора раза больше по сравнению с показателем 2023 года, хотя и меньше объемов допандемийного периода (почти $300 млн).

Россия стабильно наращивает поставки пшеницы в Бразилию. Также с 2010 года наблюдается устойчивый тренд на увеличение поставок удобрений — в прошлом году рост составил не менее 10%. Эксперты отмечают, что Бразилия, будучи одним из ведущих игроков на мировом агропромышленном рынке, сильно зависит от импорта удобрений. В последние годы страна активно накапливала их запасы, чтобы избежать перебоев с поставками, — как следствие, Россия не может рассчитывать на постоянный рост экспортных доходов по этой статье товарооборота.

One of the key difficulties for the development of economic relations between the two countries, according to RIAC, is the insufficient diversification of supplies. "Russia still finds it difficult to compete in local markets for higher-value products, primarily due to the insufficiently high rates of technological development," RIAC experts point out. This is also typical for Russian imports from Brazil, of which over 90% are food and agricultural raw materials.

Last year, RUSSIA became the sixth largest supplier of metals to Brazil: second in iron and steel, fifth in nickel. And the Latin American country supplies Russia with machinery, equipment, and chemical and pharmaceutical products, which allows it to partially replace goods that have fallen under European sanctions . But in the overall trade turnover, these purchases still remain a minority. RIAC experts call the reduction in supplies of Brazilian machinery and equipment to Russia ( agricultural machinery , machine tools, electric motors and generators, compressors, and refrigeration equipment) an alarming factor. "Brazil has a hard time withstanding competition in Russian markets due to high logistics costs, which, together with the fear of secondary sanctions, makes it problematic to maintain and, especially, expand supplies," the authors conclude, noting that Brazil's main competitor in this area is CHINA .

Due to fears of secondary restrictions, deliveries of Brazilian aviation products to Russia have also decreased (to $249 thousand). Embraer, in particular, has suspended servicing of units previously sold to Russian buyers. The authors of the report note the danger of this trend, since the share of Brazilian aircraft in the fleet of the second largest carrier in Russia, S7, is 16%.

Most joint projects in space exploration and transport infrastructure development, according to RIAC estimates, are also stalling. This is explained by both increasing competition from China and US opposition, which began even before the Ukrainian crisis.

Extremely low results were also noted in the military-technical cooperation sector. The two countries failed to complement each other's production and technical specialization, experts point out. The total volume of military equipment supplies is estimated at a "microscopic" $300-350 million for such states. Attempts to resume cooperation in this area in 2021-2022 overlapped with the start of the military operation in Ukraine and stalled, as did negotiations on Brazil's purchase of Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems.

Investment cooperation is not developing very successfully either. Brazil is not trying to replace companies that have left Russia or increase direct investment . However, some Brazilian companies have increased their share of the Russian market. In particular, BRF SA has replaced a number of European brands in the feed market, and Avon opened a research and development center at its plant in the Moscow region in 2023 .

RIAC experts believe that local anti-dumping measures, phytosanitary requirements and the complex bureaucratic procedure for certification of goods through the National Agency for HEALTH Surveillance (Anvisa) are among the important factors hindering the expansion of Russian exports to Brazil. “In the context of ongoing pressure on Brazil to join the anti-Russian sanctions, these barriers are becoming a convenient pretext for limiting the expansion of business ties,” the experts note.

Brazil does not join the anti-Russian restrictions, considering them illegal. However, private business structures and large state concerns are afraid of the possibility of the US secondary sanctions being extended to them. It is significant that Brazilian banks were not included in the list of those subject to sanctions, since they refrain from lending to bilateral projects and conducting transactions related to Russian business.

The RIAC study noted that Brazil has shown a certain interest in supplying automobile components to Russia. This is in Moscow's interests, since the formation of a national component base is unlikely to be completed in the medium term.

Experts cite joint projects in the field of energy and space technologies as an example of the most successful cooperation in developing an innovative economy. In particular, this concerns the contract between the state corporation Rosatom and the Brazilian Industrias Nucleares do Brasil, according to which Russia fully supplies the only Brazilian nuclear power plant, Angra, with enriched uranium. Rosatom also supplies radioactive fuel to Brazil (in 2023, it imported 26.9 tons of natural uranium for $52.7 million and 27.1 tons of enriched uranium-235 for $18.9 million). In addition, the Russian company won a tender for services for the conversion and enrichment of uranium mined in Brazil worth $40 million, beating, in particular, the Chinese.

In 2023, Russian diesel fuel exports to Brazil increased significantly — more than 660 thousand against 74 thousand tons in 2022. According to experts, the success of Russian exporters was facilitated by the price factor and the underdevelopment of oil refining in the South American country. Brazil's economy as a whole remains energy-intensive. Russia even managed to push the United States into second place in oil product supplies, however, as experts note, it is still unclear whether this can turn into a long-term trend, given that Brazil has its own large hydrocarbon reserves. Russia may be interested in Brazilian pre-salt deposits from the point of view of participating in their development and further oil refining , the report says.

RIAC experts believe that cooperation in the digital sphere is a potentially promising area of ​​bilateral cooperation. Many Russian online platforms and services operate successfully in Brazil. The authors note that the country is actively investing in digitalization and is among the top ten largest markets in this indicator.

Speaking about the prospects for the development of economic cooperation between Brazil and Russia, RIAC experts note that the implementation of bilateral settlements and the security of financial transactions under sanctions remain a problem. At the same time, the authors of the report point out that given the huge imbalance in bilateral trade in Russia's favor, the transition to settlements in national currencies is currently inappropriate. The RIAC believes that the use of the Chinese yuan may be more promising. Although the authors of the report also do not advise abandoning the search for new solutions in this area within the BRICS framework. Significant volumes of the Brazilian currency, for example, may become an advantage for Russian exporters willing to invest in the South American country in the production of mineral fertilizers.

Experts focus on the fact that China plays the role of a competitor rather than a partner for Russia in Brazil, despite the participation of all three countries in BRICS. "In this context, it is imperative to develop cooperation with Brazil in a way that will not negatively affect the existing relations between Moscow and Beijing," the authors of the study conclude.