Pork production in the US falls

After a decline earlier in the year, meat production is expected to recover in the coming months. The export business is also suffering.

The reduction in the number of pigs is taking its toll. According to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 41.68 million pigs were slaughtered in the United States from January to April, down 2.56 million or 5.8% from the first third of 2021. Due to a slight increase in slaughter weight, pork production decreased somewhat less significantly, by 240.3 thousand tons, or 5.5%, to 4.13 million tons.

In their May forecast, ministry analysts suggested that US pork production would return to nearly year-over-year levels in the second half of the year. As a result, at the end of the year, a decrease of “only” by 2.3% to 12.26 million tons compared to 2021 is expected. This will be the first decline in production in many years. The decline in production is offset by a similar decline in demand both at home and abroad. Domestically, significantly higher pork prices in the face of inflation are now slowing down consumer demand, according to the USDA. However, while Washington experts predict only a relatively small decrease in per capita consumption - by 0.6% to 23 kg.

Meanwhile, in pork exports, several factors are creating problems for US suppliers. In addition to lower supply, a relatively high price level due to a stronger dollar weakens global competitiveness. In addition, the drop in demand from China    is clearly felt in the US. In the first quarter of 2022, U.S. pork exports fell a fifth year-over-year to 630,000 tons, and for China, previously the biggest buyer, more than half to just under 102,000 tons. Against this background, the current USDA forecast, which assumes a decline in exports of only 6.4% year-on-year to 2.99 million tons in 2022, looks quite optimistic.