The Impact of US Tariffs on Brazilian Meat Exports: 'It Won't Bring the Stallion Down'
Photo is illustrative in nature. From open sources.
Livestock consultant Victor Tonelli analyzed the impact of US tariffs on Brazil, the role of BRICS countries, and the current situation in Argentina's livestock industry for Canal E. He also discussed the industry's challenges, the importance of exports, and financing constraints in an environment of high interest rates and uncertainty.
Victor Tonelli mentioned the additional 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian beef: "Brazil was the second-largest supplier or exporter of this product to the United States, and now, with these tariffs, it will practically disappear from this market. I would say it won't have much of an impact on the international market."
The possibility of Argentina taking Brazil's place is disappearing.
Regarding Argentina's potential for this position, he explained: "I don't think so. Yes, a small portion. An excellent option for replacing it is Australia , which also has a very high duty-free quota, allowing it to enter at a much lower cost than Argentina or other countries."
Regarding the role of BRICS and China's influence , Tonelli said: "I think rationality and pragmatism also dominate the markets. I don't see any risks or major risks."
A sharp drop of the barrel HEAD
On the other hand, he gave a disturbing overview of the local situation: "Unfortunately, the data from the first foot-and-mouth disease vaccination campaign , which became known a month ago, showed that over the past two years we have lost 3.4 million heads out of 54 million. The process of rebuilding the herd has not yet begun."
The source warned that the decline in supply would be felt for years to come: "We will again produce a very significant volume of cattle this year , very similar to what we had in the previous two years, so we should expect a decline in supply in 2026-2027."
Explaining why Argentina did not increase the number of kilograms per head of MEAT, he noted: “Exports were dependent on the will of certain parties that ruled Argentina, who sought to win votes through cheap meat or the famous Argentine table, so they banned, limited, closed and quantitatively controlled exports .”