USA: Week 40 Broiler Market Review 2021

Average broiler prices in the US market as of October 8, 2021 showed mixed trends. The average cost of broilers in September 2021 was 105.75 cents/lb (+0.9% m/m, +66.3% y/y), with total sales of around 41,356 thousand pounds (-7.1% m/m) , -8.8% per year).  

In the regional markets, prices for poultry of all categories fell, except for the cost of birds weighing from 2.51 to 3.5 pounds (+0.03$).   

Now the attention of market participants is not focused on broilers. but on turkey. The transition from harvesting to selling MEAT in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday should begin in the next 2 weeks. According to USDA-Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS) reports, wholesale market prices for turkeys were higher than a year ago by more than 10%. In the last couple of months, the media have been reporting shortages of goods. Trading was so limited from mid-August to mid-September that USDA-AMS was unable to price turkeys in its weekly market review. Price quotes for larger turkeys were available throughout August and September, with trading stable, close to mid-August. In the second half of September there was an increase in prices by 10%. Over the past two weeks, turkey prices have declined,

In early September, frozen chicken stocks in commercial cold stores were down 26% year-over-year, while frozen turkey stocks were up 5%. Overall, stocks of frozen whole poultry decreased by 9%. LMIC expects frozen turkey inventories to be down 26% year-over-year at the end of September. The accelerated decline in frozen stocks is due to turkey production in September, which is forecast to fall by 3%, while domestic consumption and exports of turkey will increase compared to September 2020.  

Uncertainty around consumer demand for turkey has been a problem for forecasts in recent years, and the last few months have not provided much clarity. During the first two months of the summer quarter, domestic turkey consumption was down 1% compared to July and August 2020, but consumption rose 4% in August, so the trend was improving. The prices of ham (17-20# vacuum-packed), which could compete with turkey during the holidays, rose nearly 40% year-over-year between July and September. However, ham prices were volatile, and by the last week of September, the same ham prices were up just 5% from a year earlier. This can be detrimental to grocery store turkey marketing programs as the holidays approach.

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BROILER COST, usa (weighted average price)

Period

Price, US cents/pound

Change, US cents/pound

Sales volume, thousand pounds

Week 40

104.70

-0.48

9575

Week 39

105.18

9955

Week 40 in 2020

65.06

39.64

8771

Price dynamics and sales volumes of broilers

Average weighted price for broilers by region

Region

Price range, cents/pound

Weighted average price,

Change, cents

Sold (thousand pounds)

cents/pound

Eastern region

77.00-132.00

104.41

-1.31

4010

central region

95.00-120.00

102.30

+1.40

2830

Western region

87.00-132.00

107.61

-0.73

2735