Brazil Pork Production: USDA Estimates for 2025

In recent years, Brazil has established itself as a competitive pork supplier. This competitiveness has allowed the country to expand its international presence, even in the face of uncertainty in global trade.

Brazil is expected to gain market share in more price-sensitive countries as tariffs and sanitary issues change trade dynamics in 2025: CHINA has imposed retaliatory tariffs on CANADA and the United States and launched an anti-dumping investigation against the European Union scheduled to conclude in June. In addition, outbreaks of African swine fever continue to impact production in regions such as Europe, Vietnam , the Philippines and South Korea , which tends to increase import demand .

Market diversification

In 2020 and 2021, China represented 55% of Brazil's pork exports during the critical period of the Asian country's ASF outbreaks. In 2024 , that share fell to 18%, reflecting weaker demand due to China's recovering domestic production and a slowing economy.

Despite the decline, Brazil recouped the losses by gaining access to 17 new markets in 2024, covering a total of more than 100 destinations. Shipments to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Singapore, Mexico, SOUTH KOREA, Argentina and the Dominican Republic stood out. The nearly 20% increase in exports to markets outside the top five destinations demonstrates Brazil’s ability to quickly adapt to changes in international trade, which will be critical to maintaining growth in 2025. 

International competitiveness

Although EXPORT prices have risen in 2024, Brazilian pork still offers a significant discount compared to other major exporters. This strategically positions the country to capture markets such as Japan , which is expected to become the world's second-largest importer in 2025 after Mexico.

In 2024, due to currency depreciation and domestic inflation, Japan increased its purchases of frozen pork and reduced its imports of fresh or chilled pork, giving preference to exporters such as Brazil. Due to sanitary restrictions, Brazilian pork can only be sold to Japan in frozen form, which balances supply and demand. Brazil's market share in Japan increased by almost 4%.

Other major importers are also expected to prioritize frozen products due to economic pressures, adding to Brazil's export growth potential.

Prospects

Brazil's progress in 2025 will depend on maintaining low production costs and being able to access new markets, especially in a volatile global trade environment.

Despite the projected expansion, the United States is expected to continue to lead the world's pork exporters due to the quality and reliability of American products.