Accumulation of greenhouse gases accelerated in Russia

The concentration of greenhouse gases is growing every year and last year the growth again reached a record, Roshydromet said in a new report. This leads to an increase in average annual temperatures, which negatively affects the climate,

The concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), in the Russian atmosphere began to grow faster last year. Such data are contained in the report of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) on the climate features in RUSSIA during the specified period.

Data on greenhouse gas concentrations are collected in Russia at five stations based on measurements in the surface layer of the atmosphere. Three stations - in Teriberka, Tiksi and Novy Port - are located in the Arctic zone. Two are located in the Central region of the European part of the country - in Obninsk (Kaluga region) and the Prioksko-Terrasny biosphere reserve (Moscow region).

The stations in Teriberka and Tiksi are in conditions close to background and are included in the system of stations of the Global Atmosphere Watch of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The stations in Obninsk and the Prioksko-Terrasny Biosphere Reserve are located about 110 km from Moscow and are affected by regional emission sources. The station in Novy Port is considered difficult to access. Due to the lack of access to land transport from October to December, observations were not completed on it.

What are greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are the collective name for carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases. The growth of their emissions is facilitated by the burning of fossil fuels and the decrease in the area of ​​forests that actively absorb CO2. The main share in emissions falls on carbon dioxide, in second place is methane. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated in CO2 equivalent. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is measured in parts per million or parts per billion. For example, if the concentration of CO2 was 422 ppm, then its density in air is 422 parts per million.

Another record

The increase in the concentration in Russia of both CO2 and CH4 continues, states Roshydromet. The level of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of northern latitudes reached another maximum last year. The average annual value at the background stations in Teriberka and Tiksi exceeded 422 ppm, and the maximum annual concentrations observed in the winter months were close to 430 ppm. The level of concentration and the amplitude of the seasonal variation at these stations are close to the data of the Barrow station ( usa , Arctic zone), the agency notes.

According to background stations, the growth rate of CO2 concentrations increased last year compared to 2020 and 2021, the report says. The increase in concentration over the past year has been 3.4–3.5 ppm, well above the global average growth rate over the previous ten years. This is also significantly higher than the global increase for 2021 (2.5 ppm) and at Russian Arctic stations (2.6 ppm).

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The average annual concentration of methane at Russian northern stations also reached record levels last year, approaching 2020 ppb. As Roshydromet notes, the upward trend in CH4 growth began to appear in 2019. At that time, high concentration values ​​were recorded at the station in Tiksi during the period of maximum natural emission in August–September. In 2020, CH4 values ​​there remained high until the end of the year, and this trend began to be observed at the station in Teriberka.

Last year, meteorologists recorded a strong increase in methane concentration at the station in Teriberka (by 20 ppm per year) and a slowdown in the increase at the station in Tiksi, while the level of CH4 concentration at both became equal.

The concentration of methane is growing faster and faster not only in the Russian Arctic, but also on a global scale. Thus, according to WMO data, in 2020 and 2021, the largest intra-annual increases in the content of methane in the atmosphere (15 and 18 ppb, respectively) were recorded since the deployment of systematic measurements in the early 1980s.

Stations affected by regional sources also show an increase in CO2 concentration. Last year, the average annual CO2 concentrations were 447.5 ppm in the Prioksko-Terrasny Biosphere Reserve and 433 ppm in Obninsk. The average annual concentration of methane at these stations was 2036.9 ppb and 2115 ppb, respectively.

Reasons for rising CO2 and CH4 concentrations

The unequivocal cause of global warming is human activity, mainly associated with greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 6th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (.pdf). Greenhouse gas emissions are rising due to the use of fossil fuels, changes in land use, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production.

The main drivers of changes in emissions in Russia are the general trends in the development of the economy, the integral indicator of which is the change in GDP, shifts in the structure of GDP, changes in energy efficiency, as well as the overall efficiency of the country's economy and the structure of the fuel balance, according to the National report on the inventory of anthropogenic emissions.

According to the document, the largest contribution to greenhouse emissions in Russia is made by the energy sector (77.9%). In second place are industrial processes and product use (11.8%). Agriculture contributes 5.7% of emissions, waste 4.6% (latest available data for 2020). Data on gross greenhouse gas emissions by Russia and net emissions (taking into account the absorption of greenhouse gases by Russian forests) for 2021 and 2022 are not yet available.

“Our civilization is still heavily dependent on the burning of fossil fuels in almost all areas of life, and it is not easy, but possible, to rebuild these rather inertial systems in the short time frame that the fight against the climate crisis requires,” says the HEAD of the climate and energy transition project Russian "Greenpeace" Polina Karkina. She clarifies that last year's increase in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels was primarily due to a large increase in the use of petroleum products against the background of the recovery of world tourism following the peak of the covid-19 pandemic .

Methane enters the atmosphere from both anthropogenic and natural sources. As noted in the report of Roshydromet, the increase in natural emissions may be caused by climate warming. Which of the reasons is responsible for the change in the growth rate of methane concentration has not yet been established, Roshydromet points out. WMO writes that the increase in CH4 emissions is likely due to emissions from biogenic sources (such as swamps and rice fields).

The background values ​​​​of the concentration of greenhouse gases, which are given by Roshydromet, do not take into account the origin of the latter - anthropogenic or natural, First Deputy Minister of Economic Development Ilya Torosov (supervises the department of competition, energy efficiency and ecology) told RBC. “Earth’s atmosphere is global, so the increase in concentration in our northern latitudes is the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions across the planet, in all countries and from all sources,” he said.

“It is widely known that about 98% of greenhouse gas emissions are of natural origin,” Torosov said. However, there is now a “some increase” in such anthropogenic emissions. In 2021, this was due to the recovery of economic activity (after the restrictions associated with the CORONAVIRUS. -), and the trend was observed not only in Russia, but throughout the world, he explained.

Impacts on climate and population

Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are the main drivers of modern warming. In Russia, as well as throughout the world, average annual temperatures are rising. However, its territory is warming 1.7 times faster than the world's land as a whole, by 0.49 degrees Celsius per decade, according to the report of Roshydromet (.pdf). Every decade since 1981-1990 in Russia is warmer than the previous one, and out of the ten warmest years, nine were observed in the 21st century. Temperatures are rising the fastest in the Russian Arctic, at 0.71 degrees per decade.

Roshydromet in the 3rd assessment report on climate change and its consequences in Russia (.pdf) writes about such threats:

an increase in the amount of precipitation in winter throughout the country, and in summer in most of the territory, with the exception of the southern regions, where the opposite trend is predicted; an increase in the maximum daily amount of precipitation in a year, especially in the Far East and Eastern Siberia; reduction in the area of ​​snow cover; reduction of permafrost area; increased waterlogging; risks of peat fires; increased frequency of extreme floods and water shortages; an increase in mortality by about 0.1% by 2030 due to natural and climatic changes.

Combating greenhouse gas emissions

To reduce the risks associated with climate change, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizes Roshydromet. To do this, in addition to reducing the share of hydrocarbon fuels, “it is necessary to focus on sustainable agriculture, energy and resource efficient economy.” “Steps in these directions will lead to the development of not only clean energy, but also recycling of waste and recyclable materials, which will create demand for new jobs in these sectors of the economy, as well as in construction, science and education,” the authors of last year’s assessment report point out. .

However, such structural changes carry risks for the Russian economy and society, Roshydromet warns. “World experience shows that the lower the initial level of structural and technological modernization of the country's economy, the more significant will be the decline in GDP growth and the standard of living of the population during the transition to a green economy, and the greater will be the loss of jobs. Therefore, in this context, Russia needs to give priority to investments in fixed assets, the development of processing industries and the “knowledge economy,” the document says. To absorb the negative consequences of the "green" turn, they suggest that the state develop special social programs.

Russia has created a regulatory framework for measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says Svetlana Bik, head of the Infragreen expert and analytical platform, author of the 100% Green TELEGRAM channel. So, last September, the federal law on limiting greenhouse gas emissions came into force. “In several regions of the Russian Federation, carbon polygons are operating to develop scientific recommendations. Basic standards have already been created in the system of technical regulation,” she notes. In addition, all corporate strategies of the largest Russian companies include taking into account greenhouse gas emissions and investing in projects to reduce them, the expert emphasizes.

Torosov recalls that Sakhalin is conducting an experiment on quotas for greenhouse gas emissions, and an innovative project "Unified National Monitoring System for Climatically Active Substances" has been launched.

In Russia, with all the measures taken, there is no necessary goal-setting, Karkina believes. “In accordance with the presidential decree “On reducing greenhouse gas emissions”, by 2030 it is planned to reduce emissions by 30% compared to 1990 levels. And according to the latest report on the inventory of anthropogenic emissions, emissions in the Russian Federation have already decreased by 52% compared to 1990 levels,” she says.

In addition, the “Strategy for the Socio-Economic Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050” provides for “extremely modest reductions in direct emissions”. According to a Greenpeace representative, the main focus of the document is not on reducing emissions, but on their absorption [by forests].

Since the majority of emissions in Russia come from the energy sector, the focus should be on energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energy sources, Karkina suggests. To do this, it is possible to set targets for the share of renewable energy sources in the energy balance of the subjects, introduce solar roof programs in cities and popularize microgeneration. Among other measures, she names the electrification of transport and production processes, the transition to a circular economy, the reduction of municipal solid waste, the development of sustainable forestry.

“From the perspective of the individual, one of the interventions with the greatest potential is to switch to a low-meat diet,” adds Karkina (in particular, cows and other ruminants emit a lot of methane. -).

According to Beek, the fight to reduce emissions should be carried out with the cooperation of business and the state. It is too early to talk about the effectiveness of the measures taken now, she warns, an assessment can be tried in one or two years.

In February, the president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, called for a move away from "Western approaches" to combating climate change in Russia. In particular, in his opinion, it is necessary to assess the extent to which projects related to renewable energy sources are currently being implemented.