Drought in the US could negatively affect beef exports

A new analysis by Rebecca Wright of the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) shows that US beef producers can take advantage of EXPORT opportunities despite the challenges of the ongoing drought.

Parts of the United States have recently suffered from heat waves and drought. About a third of the US cattle herd is in drylands, where many pastures are classified as being in "very bad" or "poor" condition. The slaughter of cows and heifers has increased in the affected regions, suggesting that animals are delivered for slaughter earlier than usual. This may negatively impact future slaughter levels.

According to the latest data from the USDA Cattle Inventory, the number of calving cows has decreased by 2%. The number of replacement heifers has also decreased, although the dairy herd continues to grow.

The latest projections put U.S. beef production at 12.7 million tons, significantly higher than in recent years. Producer prices for finished products are expected to remain high. However, in some areas, production costs rise sharply, forcing some farmers to make the choice to eliminate their herds due to lack of pasture and rising feed costs.

Domestic consumption of beef will not change significantly. However, export growth is forecast. So far, most of this growth has come from SOUTH KOREA and CHINA , with exports to Mexico recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Exports to South Korea have benefited from tariff reductions, while some non-tariff measures have been removed for China .

Demand for beef in China is on the rise, driven by both the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak and changing consumer habits. So far, the Chinese beef market has been dominated by South America and Australia. Recently, however, both exporting countries have run into problems. Australian exports have been constrained as a result of the suspension of export licenses of exporting businesses and a reduction in production. In early June, the Argentine government imposed restrictions on export volumes. This made it possible for US exporters to increase their presence in the world market.  

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru