China: Pork production to fall 3 percent in 2024

The 2024 hog production forecast has been revised to 695 million HEAD, down 3 percent year-over-year due to lower sow numbers in 2024 compared to 2023. Herd liquidation as a result of low prices and delayed herd growth due to disease in 2023 are the two main reasons for the decline in sow numbers.

Swine producers began expanding hog production to rebuild their herds in 2020 and 2021 as outbreaks of African swine fever ( ASF ) crippled the industry. The negative consequences of China's significant expansion of the pig population became evident in 2023, when pig production exceeded market demand. Average hog prices remained low through 2023, leading to losses throughout the hog industry.

Apart from some small gains from August to September, manufacturers operated at a loss for most of 2023, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.  

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) said this is the first year since 2014 that pork producers have suffered such large losses. Industry sources said ASF continued to impact the sector in 2023, especially in North CHINA. Producer losses and news of a resurgence of ASF contributed to panic selling, resulting in the reduction of underperforming sows. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the sow population fell to 41.42 million at the end of 2023.

Pig production is projected to decline in 2024. With fewer inefficient sows, the number of piglets per sow per year (PSY) has improved. However, the improvement in PSY is unlikely to offset the lower sow population average in 2023.

More and more small and medium-sized producers are leaving the market due to difficult cash flows and problems obtaining loans. The NBS estimates that, given the decline in pork production from small producers, the share of large pork producers compared to small and medium-sized producers will exceed 68 percent in 2023, with year-on-year growth of about 3 percent.

Imports of live pigs will remain low, around 7,000 head, and decline moderately from 2023. China imports breeding pigs to improve the genetics of its domestic herd. Imported live pigs account for only about 0.001 percent of the total pig population. Most pig producers remain under financial pressure, making it difficult to invest in herd improvement.  

In addition, despite the decline in sow numbers, the current sow population level exceeds the official targets of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Industry representatives also believe that current stocking levels are sufficient. The main suppliers of live pigs to China are the usa , Denmark and France .

Pig exports have barely recovered. The forecast for live pig exports in 2024 is at 1.14 million heads, with a slight increase in exports to Hong Kong. Hong Kong and Macau will remain the main destinations for live pig exports from China . Hong Kong is China's largest EXPORT destination for live pigs.

Hong Kong's hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector and tourism industry gradually recovered in 2023 as border controls between China and Hong Kong were eased in late 2022 and early 2023, facilitating increased imports of live pigs from China for fresh pork production. A continued and slow recovery in live pig exports to Hong Kong is forecast in 2024.

Macau is China's second largest export destination, albeit with minimal volumes. Exports to Macau have remained stable over the years, except during the pandemic. Exports to Macau are expected to remain stable in 2024.