What will be the report of the USDA on pigs and pork for June, economists said

Four economists address issues likely to draw attention in the upcoming USDA Quarterly Swine and Pork Report, due June 29 .

Scott Brown, University of Missouri economist

“The June pig report will set the stage for domestic pork supplies for the remainder of 2022. There are many factors at play that suggest little change or a slightly lower breeding stock as of June 1, higher costs of investment in new facilities, concerns about workforce availability and future productivity at processing plants, a possible US economic downturn, and knowledge that that demand for US pork in CHINA continues to fall short of record levels. These factors should provide many reasons for the lack of growth or slight decline in the breeding stock.”

Altin Kahlo, Chief Economist at Steiner Consulting Group

“For me, the size of the breeding herd is always of key importance. There is a lot of uncertainty about the Supreme Court's decision regarding California Proposition 12. High feed costs are likely to freeze any expansion plans. One way or another, I think that the number of breeding animals will decrease.”

Nathan Losey, grain and livestock market analyst at AgResource

“The most important figures, in my opinion, will be the number of farrowings in March-May in relation to the farrowings planned for March. The March report showed no increase in the breeding herd, so I want to see if farrowing confirms this. In addition, I will be looking at summer and fall farrowing plans and breeding stock inventory for June 1st. Historically, when we saw last year's profit, we also saw industry expansion. So far, this has not happened.

I think the biggest hurdle to expansion has been general inflation in the US and the rising cost of building materials, labor and other costs. If we don't see any expansion this quarter, the signal to the market will be very clear: Much higher margins are needed to expand the industry."

Christine McCracken, Executive DIRECTOR and Senior Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank

“Given the current situation, we would not be surprised if the USDA revised their March figures slightly upwards, but we still expect limited growth in the breeding herd and a slight decrease in the number of farrowings during the year. Current issues are likely to limit productivity gains and sow stock growth, but we will be monitoring the situation given the upbeat discussions at the World Pork Expo in early June.”