FAO presented 4 scenarios for the development of the agri-food sector
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The report was presented by Lorenzo Giovanni Bellu, Senior Economist, FAO Global Prospects Research Group Leader.
it describes 4 scenarios for the development of the agro-food sector:
1. Continuation of the current course (deterioration in all indicators) - attempts to somehow respond to events and crises, while making exactly the amount of effort that would allow avoiding the collapse of systems, led to the degradation of sustainable agri-food systems and poor living conditions for most people. As a result, the likelihood of systems failure in the long term has increased.
2. Adjusted future - in an attempt to achieve the goals of the ESG-2030 agenda, steps have been taken to create sustainable agri-food systems. Some improvements have been made in terms of welfare, but due to the lack of sustainability and resilience of the systems as a whole, sustaining the gains in the long term has proved difficult.
3. Race to the bottom (crash scenario) – Extremely ill-advised decisions have led us to live in the worst version of our world after the collapse of a large part of the socio-economic, environmental and agri-food systems, with consequences for a very large number of people and ecosystems turned out to be ruinous and almost irreparable.
4. Trade-offs for sustainability (transformative course) - through increased awareness and education, fulfillment of social obligations, instilling responsibility and increased involvement in most countries, a new balance of power has been formed and the development paradigm has changed. An alternative to ensuring faster short-term GDP growth and final consumption has been to ensure that agri-food socio-economic and ecological systems are inclusive, resilient and sustainable.
The presented report was prepared for 2 years. The work carried out is an attempt to look a little further beyond the planning horizon (until 2030 / until 2050 and beyond) and analyze possible scenarios for the development of the agro-industrial complex.
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